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----- Original Message ----- From: "pemainedan" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 10:35 AM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Re : ANTM Sell by LG Biasanya (dari pengalaman dulu2) kalo udah gini, bentar lagi dijeblokin, biar seolah2 analisa mereka benar. Ingat peristiwa dulu wkt ML kasih target INCO 42000, PGAS 8000 (kl tidak salah)? Akhirnya dijeblokin ke dekat2 angka tsb. Nanti setelah itu ditarik kencang sampai ga terkejar lagi. So, mudah2an bener dijeblokin, biar bisa collect lbh buanyak2. > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "gmail- doekoen.jamoe" > > > > > <doekoen.jamoe@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > Quote from Klubsaham.com > > > > > > > > > > > > Aneka Tambang, Riding On Metal Prices > > > > > > (ANTM.JK/ANTM IJ - Rp3,550) - SELL (under review) Result > > > > > > > > > > > > ANTM posted 9M07 revenues of Rp8.3tr or up by 143.1% YoY > > > buoyed > > > > by > > > > > strong metal prices and higher sales volume of high-grade > > nickel > > > > > ores. Higher prices guarded costs that have been hiking > > > throughout > > > > > the year. ???? [size=18][b] > > > > > > > > > > > > DISINI SI ANALIS TIDAK LIHAT REPORT PENGELUARAN BULANAN > > ANTM, > > > > > DIA HANYA MENGUTARAKAN PENDAPAT PRIBADI.[/b][/size] > > > > > > > > > > > > As a result, ANTM registered robust gross profit and > > operating > > > > > profit growth by 262.0% and 289.7%, respectively. Joint with > > > higher > > > > > dividend income, net interest income as well as a one-off > item > > > > > amounted Rp86bn, the company's strong operation performance > > > lifted > > > > > net profit by 373.7% YoY to Rp3.8tr. > > > > > > > > > > > > Sales volume of high-grade nickel ores, gold, and silver > > > advanced > > > > > by 126%, 83%, and 18% YoY to 5.0m wet metric ton (wmt), > > 3.7ton, > > > and > > > > > 18.9ton, respectively, compensating lower sales volume of > low- > > > grade > > > > > nickel ores, bauxite, and ferronickel that dropped 62%, 23%, > > and > > > 4% > > > > > to 0.2mn wmt, 0.8mn wmt, and 9,279 ton. > > > > > > > > > > > > QoQ basis, ANTM booked 3Q07 revenues, gross profit, > > operating > > > > > profit, and net profit of Rp2.3tr (-37.8% QoQ), Rp1.4tr (- > > 48.1% > > > > > QoQ), Rp1.2tr (-51.5% QoQ), and [b]Rp958.1bn [/b](-46.8% > QoQ). > > > > > > > > > > > > Stock Data > > > > > > > > > > > > PERHATIKAN ANGKA-ANGKA AJAIB BERIKUT INI, ANGKA-ANGKA INI > > > KELUAR > > > > > TANPA ADA HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN ANGKA-ANGKA YANG DISAMPAIKAN > > DIATAS! > > > > > > Target Price: Rp2,720 angka ajaib !!! > > > > > > P/E (x): 7.8 angka lebih ajaib !!! > > > > > > KENAPA CUMAN 7.8? APA NGAK TERLALU BESAR? KENAPA TIDAK > 6.18? > > > ATAU > > > > > 5.5? ATAU 4.3? ATAU.....1 (satu) ? > > > > > > P/BV (x): 3.8 > > > > > > Div. Yield (%): 7.0 > > > > > > > > > > > > Comment > > > > > > High metal prices has been the driving factor for stellar > > 9M07 > > > > > performance, bringing ANTM sets of record performances from > > top > > > > line > > > > > (exceeding US$900m) to bottom line (exceeding US$400m). > > However, > > > > > cost concerns will be the next crucial theme going into 4Q07 > > and > > > > > onwards as oil price continues to strengthen while base > metal > > > > prices > > > > > has started to decline. With the absence of huge capital- > > > intensive > > > > > projects, strong metal prices generated generous free cash > > flows > > > > > that helped ANTM solidify its balance sheet, raising cash by > > > more > > > > > than 4.0x to Rp4.4tr and trimmed debt by 38% YoY to Rp1.0tr. > > As > > > a > > > > > result, ANTM's balance sheet reported a turnaround from > > > reporting a > > > > > net debt of Rp770bn a year earlier to a net cash of Rp3.4tr > or > > > net > > > > > cash per share of Rp355. A strong balance sheet should > provide > > a > > > > > leeway for ANTM to materialize their acquisition plans. An > > > > > accidental stoppage of the newly built FeNi-3 unit in mid- > 2Q07 > > > > > resulted in a 20% QoQ decline in ferronickel production. > > > Luckily, > > > > > ANTM was able to offset the lower contribution from > > ferronickel > > > by > > > > > boosting the sales of high-grade nickel ores to China. Going > > > > > forward, ANTM toned down its ferronickel production target > in > > > 2008 > > > > > to 17,000 ton from high 20,000 ton. Gold production from > > Pongkor > > > > has > > > > > been slow to pick up with growth of only 1.0% YoY, while > > > reporting > > > > a > > > > > 3.0% QoQ production decline in 9M07. > > > > > > > > > > > > AIYA ! TERNYATA ANGKA Rp2,720 DENGAN PE 7.8an DIDASARKAN > > NETT > > > > CASH > > > > > HINGGA BULAN SEP 07. YAITU SEBESAR RP 355 x7.8 (7.8 sendiri > > > entah > > > > > angka keramat dari mana?) > > > > > > BARU 1 KALI INI AKU LIHAT SEORANG ANALIS MEMPERKIRAKAN > Price > > > > > Earning Ratio TERHADAP NETT CASH, BUKAN NETT PROFIT > > > > > KUARTALAN/TAHUNAN! > > > > > > WOW, MUNGKIN INI CARA ANALISA YANG BARU ! > > > > > > > > > > > > ANTM performance in 3Q07 was weak due to: > > > > > > 1) declining prices of all metals produced by the company, > > > except > > > > > gold; > > > > > > 2) lower sales volume of ferronickel and high-grade ores > > amid > > > > > higher sales of gold and silver; and > > > > > > 3) continued cost escalation. Consequently, we are not > > > surprised > > > > > to by the set of weak quarterly result. > > > > > > > > > > > > We are revising our projections, hence our recommendation > > and > > > > > target price. Base metal prices have started to rebound > albeit > > > at a > > > > > slow pace, while gold price is on the up trend. Any gold > mine > > > > > acquisition, could be a potential surprise; yet, it hinges > on > > > the > > > > > quality of the mine. Financial Summary Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q > > > > Profitability > > > > > Performance > > > > > > (Rpbn) 9M06 9M07 Chg (%) 2Q07 3Q07 Chg (%) > > > > > > Revenue 3,401 8,270 143.1 3,628 2,256 (37.8) > > > > > > Gross profit 1,506 5,452 262.0 2,601 1,350 (48.1) > > > > > > Operating profit 1,317 5,132 289.7 2,496 1,211 (51.5) > > > > > > Net profit 809 3,831 373.7 1,800 958 (46.8) > > > > > > Gross margin (%) 44.3 65.9 71.7 59.8 > > > > > > Operating margin (%) 38.7 62.1 68.8 53.7 > > > > > > Net margin (%) 23.8 46.3 49.6 42.5 > > > > > > > > > > > > Adi Hartadi > > > > > > Tel: (6221) 515 2727 > > > > > > adi.hartadi@ > > > > > > > > > > > > DISCLAIMER > > > > > > > > > > > > MAKELAR BILANG BAHWA RESEARCH DARI SI ADI HARTADI BULL > SHIT! > > > > > > > > > > > > Tapi sejujurnya Makelar sih senang kalau ANTM turun lagi > > > karena > > > > > sejujurnya ANTM overweight ama penumpang retail, sebaiknya > > para > > > > > retail kecil seperti makelar dan teman-teman pada lepasin > > barang- > > > > > barangnya agar ngereknya ngak susah. hi....hi....hi... > > > > > > Disclaimer on. > > > > > > > > > > > > Daisy You've got friend now! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > > > > Do You Yahoo!? > > > > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection > > around > > > > > http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
