Pemikiran saya juga demikian sejak awal tapi yah seperti apa kata mbah, PIG...Pasar Itu Gila.
On Thu, Nov 26, 2009 at 9:31 AM, T Halim <tedha...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > - BusinessWeek <http://www.businessweek.com/> > - Business Exchange <http://bx.businessweek.com/> > > > [image: BusinessWeek Logo] <http://www.businessweek.com/> > > - Wednesday November 4, 2009 > > *New Business* November 24, 2009, 7:34PM EST text size: > T<http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/09_49/b4158024378700.htm#> > T<http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/09_49/b4158024378700.htm#> > Behind the Great Stock Rally of 2009 There may not be much to the rally > beyond herd-like momentum, but that could keep the stock market going even > into next year > > By Roben Farzad <http://www.businessweek.com/print/bios/Roben_Farzad.htm>and > Tara > Kalwarski <http://www.businessweek.com/print/bios/Tara_Kalwarski.htm> > > The U.S. economy is coping with alarmingly high double-digit unemployment, > a widening commercial real estate bust, and over-indebted consumers. Few > think the economic recovery now under way will be a spectacular one in 2010. > So why has the stock market surprised skeptics by powering higher in recent > weeks? One explanation being bandied about by equity strategists and > portfolio managers is that the stock market may be in the midst of a > momentum-driven trading phenomenon known as a "melt up" that has precious > little to do with economic fundamentals. > > A melt up is a rapid and mass rush by investors into an asset class after a > belated realization by market players that worthwhile gains are to be had > there. Part herd mentality, part self-fulfilling prophecy, this trading > behavior is amplified by the age-old tendency of fund managers and retail > investors to chase returns in the hopes of making up for lost time and > lagging performance. The U.S. stock market is enjoying an explosive rally > that has humbled plenty of bears, who have been predicting a deep correction > for several months now. Instead, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has > soared 63% since its Mar. 9 low and is up 22% for 2009. > Where's the Support? > > That has left plenty of money pros rethinking their market outlook. "We've > spent a considerable time of late assessing the conditions for a melt up," > admits Bernie Schaeffer, chief executive of Schaeffer's Investment Research. > He says he is baffled at how the market's rally this year has essentially > been devoid of improved investor sentiment and big inflows into domestic > equity funds. While bond funds have taken in nearly $330 billion so far this > year, U.S. stock funds have lost almost $28 billion. A handful of big > institutional investors and hedge funds, rather than retail investors, have > been responsible for the lion's share of buying this year. > > In fact, overall there is far greater investor enthusiasm for asset classes > other than U.S. equities. Emerging markets, which have outperformed their > American counterpart, are being deluged with fresh money. The red-hot junk > bond market is also attracting heavy investor interest. Even gold coins are > being hoarded as the yellow metal keeps breaking records. > > Mom-and-pop investors in U.S. stocks, meanwhile, are only slightly less > bearish than they were in March, when the market hit a 12½-year low. Yet > that could change, given the impressive performance this year in the S&P 500 > and Nasdaq Composite Index > (NDAQ<http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=NDAQ>), > up about 38% in 2009. "If 2010 starts out strong as well," says Schaeffer, > "the fear of missing out on stock returns could prove irresistible." Not > coincidentally, January happens to be high season for personal finance > introspection—with outsized attention paid to the past year's performance > column and the coming year's retirement account funding. > > A bigger and more pronounced money shift into stocks early next year could > be also induced by diminishing returns in many segments of the bond market. > There is every indication that investors are scraping the bottom of the > fixed-income barrel. Three-month Treasury bills, that redoubt of > ultraliquidity and safety, are yielding just 0.03%. A negative yield, where > people actually pay the government to safeguard their money, could be in the > offing. On the other end of the curve, the 10-year Treasury note yields > 3.3%, a rate that skeptics argue does not begin to buffer holders from the > real risk of inflation a few years out. > > The Federal Reserve doesn't just slash short-term interest rates to help > banks; it does so to make sitting on cash painful enough to force investors > back into the risk-reward economy. Which might not be that difficult an > undertaking if there weren't so much idle cash out there—a remnant of last > year's panic and subsequent spate of bank failures and bailouts, the likes > of which made "return of money" outprioritize "return on money." > Pressure to Get into the Stock Market > > After nearly touching $4 trillion in January, money fund assets were last > clocked at $3.339 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute. > Barring another crisis, the hunt for yield will prompt more drawdowns from > this sizable balance and perhaps shift more funds into stocks. "What I'm > expecting is people being forced to get in," says Peter Grandich, a veteran > investor newsletter editor. "The vast majority of money is managed by > professionals who are gauged and measured on performance, a lot of which is > judged by the quarter," he adds. "In 2008 people yelled at them for not > getting them out; in 2009, people are getting yelled at for not getting in. > The pressure to finally commit will be on, whether managers like it not." > > Of course, melt ups—like so many trends that involve investor psychology > and behavioral economics—are, by definition, almost always unpredictable. > Who is to say that investors haven't been rendered so skittish by the > repeated heartbreaks from U.S. stocks that they would make their bets on > companies in China, Brazil, and beyond before getting reacquainted with > Citigroup > (C<http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=C>), > General Electric > (GE<http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=GE>), > and Microsoft > (MSFT<http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=MSFT>)? > Or that the full-fledged return of the individual investor, should it come, > to the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq wouldn't actually be a red flag for the smart > money to bail? > > Indeed, the last time financial pros talked of the prospect of a melt up > was in early 2007, when buyout shops were snapping up companies left and > right and hedge funds were putting everything else in play. Money was cheap; > risk seemed overrated. So much so, in fact, that the prevailing worry then > was that investors would realize there simply wasn't enough stock to go > around to accommodate the flood of buy orders that were supposed to prompt a > renaissance for the American stock market. It all ended in tears, of course. > Wall Street cratered and took the world economy down with it. > > Few are predicting a reprise of the U.S. and global market collapse of 2008 > that destroyed trillions in wealth around the world. Yet until this rally > attracts a broader base of investors and is supported by robust economic > fundamentals instead of short-term trading strategies, it is hard to see a > multiyear bull market taking hold. > > *BusinessWeek* Senior Writer Farzad <roben_far...@businessweek.com> covers > Wall Street and international finance. > Kalwarski<tara_kalwar...@businessweek.com>is Numbers department editor at > BusinessWeek. > ------------------------------ > >
