YESSSS SIR.., with no DOUBT.. timbun terusssss TINS. Ayo mumpung obrall. Kita lihat garis finish akhir tahun. Setuju dengan analisa om Jonni. Akan ada shortage tin dunia. ayo guyurrrr. ane tammpuuuuuuuung GL
On 4/25/07, Jonni Amin, CFA, FRM <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Why the tin price will go up and not down? Please see my Note in the bottom: *1. Simple calculation:* Sales 50,000 MT avr price 13,000; cost $ 8100 Profit $245,000,000 Profit after tax 70% * $ 245 jt = $171 jt ==> asumsi $150 juta saja So, profit after tax $ 150 jt * 9000 = Rp 1.35 trio or about Rp 2675 EPS or min. Rp 30,000 per share MSC in Malaysia is being valued 10.5 x PE by S&P (with limited tin reserves) , so theoritically PT Timah (with abundant reserves) will be valued even higher than that because PT Timah has the reserves and other franchise value which is not valued by analysts : all foreign investment must work with BUMN either with PT Timah or PT Antam. 2. Singapore Tin Industries Pte. Ltd., a JV between Yunnan Tin Co and KJP International, has a capacity to produce 36,000 tons of purified tin per year at full capacity, or about a 10th of the world's total demand for such tin, which would propel Singapore to become one of its top 10 producers. The plant started its operation since March 2006. The group's Singapore Tin Industries joint-venture reported a loss of $287,000 in the 1st quarter of 2007, due to a shortage of raw material feed. The Singapore plant's refined tin production dropped to only 426 tonnes in the three months. YTC owns 42% of STI. *NOTE: I suspect 100% of the feed stock is from Indonesia. If the production last year was assumed 60%, the market will be shortage of about 20,000 MT from STI as it can no longer get the feed stock from Indonesia. * 3. 20 Apr 2007 - Yunnan Tin Company has reported a six-fold increase in net profit in the first quarter of 2007 and forecasts a more than seven-fold rise in profit in the first half of the year. January-March net profit was 126 million yuan (US$16 million), while turnover doubled to 1.66 billion yuan ($215 million). Export prices increased by 60% while domestic prices rose 23% in the period, the company said. Refined tin sales in the period rose 65% to 9,224 tonnes. *Note: I assume PT Timah profit will jump minimum six to sevenfold. I noticed the Yunan Tin Co, the world largest producer, sold only 9,224 MT for 1st quarter 2007, meaning that the annualised sales(MT) will be less than PT Timah -- perhaps the bank of tin export from Indonesia has started to take effect as now it has limited feed stock from Indonesia. * 4. Tin major MSC sees lower output in 2007 on limited feed stock. The Butterworth plant has a designed capacity of 50,000 mt/year and has producing between 30,000-40,000 mt/year on the lack of feed stock, namely tin concentrate. Kobatin can now produce only 500 mt/month, far from previous year's output of 20,000 mt/year. The official said its Butterworth plant in Malaysia was expected to see lower output in 2007 as its feed stock from Indonesia had been affected since the ban on tin export by the Indonesian government in late 2006. The company buys from some of the affected private Indonesian smelters on Bangka. On October 4, 2006, 23 private smelters on Bangka were raided and closed down by the police as they did not have to proper licenses to operate *Note: With the combined capacity of 70,000 MT (MSC + Kobatin), I assumed about 80% of the feed stock was from illegal miners in Indonesia, meaning the market will be shortage of tin of about 56,000 MT * 5. The ban on tin export will also affect the feed stock for other companies in Thailand and China *Note: I do not know how much MT will be lost from the market due to limited feed stock for smelters in Thailand and China. * 6. Bolivia to Auction Tin From Seized Glencore Smelter. The Vinto auction will take place on April 23, according to an invitation issued to the sale issued by La Empresa Metalurgica Vinto, the company operating the smelter. Alvarez couldn't confirm the quantity of tin to be sold. Vinto produced 11,804 tons last year, or an average of 984 tons a month. *Note: The nationalisation of the tin smelter and the limited producers/smelters in the world will push the tin price higher * 7. The world consumption of about 300,000 MT is going to increase by 6 - 10% every year. 8. The cost of production for tin and nickel is more or less at about US$8,000. Nickel price has gone up to US$ 50,000 (more than six-fold of the cost) whereas tin price has gone up only less than 2 time -- still have a lot potential to grow. 9. So far, only a few companies in the world produce tin; hence, the supply will not increase within this two years. SUMMARY Min 60,000 - 90,000 MT (compared with the world consumption is about 300,000 MT) of tin will be in shortage in the market because of the ban of the tin export from the illegal miners in Indonesia. The shortage will be felt within next month when the stocks in the overseas market was down.
