I did buy equities today. Situasinya beda ama 2008 dulu kali yah,
ketidakpastian sudah jauh berkurang, profitabilitas perusahaan pada
rate terburuk sudah bisa diukur (Q408-Q109) adalah indikasi performa
paling jelek, tentu kita bisa buat pro-forma worst scenario dari situ.
1 lg, kita semua experience first hand pasca lehman waktu CDS rate
Indonesia sampe dobel digit en Yield Rf (SUN) sampe bisa ke level
17-18 % (we bought a lot Rf didnt we?). Nah CDS indonesia pada
historical terbaiknya, Rf skrg susah balik diatas 11 % lg, politik en
ekonomi stabil. So why do i bother merah or ijo harian? Even 2-3
harian. As long as i bought stocks that yielding FCF matching Rf rate,
i dont mind being taken down to a deeper gulfing wave, yg repot justru
kalo duit inflow balik en saya bingung naro kas kemane, kemane coba?
Deposito cuman segitu, SUN segitu, Obligasi Korporat AA- plg keren
12.25% skrg, eh ada lewat saham yg FCF yieldnya 10-11%, yg net cash
per sharenya 4-5%, yg manajemennya punya track record bagus ya paling
turun lg ampe brapa sih?! Masuk lah. Terus terang saya gak bisa time
market. Definitely cant, but atleast saya bisa ukur nilai barang under
different business & economic scenario. Likelihood kita hit crisis
udah kecil bgt, kalo equity dipukul sampe mencerminkan level as if dia
kena krisis, would i add or sell my equities?
On 11/2/09, conx_2003 <conx_2...@yahoo.com.au> wrote:
> secara TAL tiap kang ocoy buy, pasti merah dalam
>
> karena kang ocoy mana mau beli di harga mahal?
>
> tentu mereka ada segala cara untuk membuat mereka masuk tanpa diketahui
>
> so be prepared..
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Ben <beny....@...> wrote:
>>
>> make sense. cuman kabar CIT 23 jam lalu bikin situasi kurang enak. itu
>> aja. thx.
>>
>> On 11/2/09, putera...@... <putera...@...> wrote:
>> > Wuihhhh. Penjelasan yg sangat logis
>> > Sent from my BlackBerry®
>> > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: "kang_ocoy_maen_saham" <disclosure....@...>
>> > Date: Mon, 02 Nov 2009 07:25:28
>> > To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
>> > Subject: [ob] Re: kang ocoy, EL, what's going on here?
>> >
>> > Why Should? kecuali Premium Risk Investasi di Indonesia naik, dan suku
>> > bunga
>> > acuan BI naik, dan Yield SUN naik.
>> >
>> > otherwise No, Big No, every Dip is an entry-point. i keep re-telling
>> > this.
>> > FCF Yield above Rf, Clean Balance Sheet, Good Management = wicked
>> > opportunity.
>> >
>> > I'm loading equities and selling my Government Bond.
>> >
>> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Ben <beny.tan@> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> punten kang ocoy n EL,
>> >>
>> >> secara fundamental apa kang ocoy n EL melihat adanya indikator investor
>> >> lokal harus revisi target ASAP?
>> >>
>> >> thx,
>> >> beny
>> >>
>> >> --
>> >> DISCLAIMER:
>> >> "I hereby disclaim any responsibility for the currency or accuracy of
>> >> the
>> >> reported data and/or the performance of the Investments in your
>> >> portfolio,
>> >> unless performance has exceeded your expectations."
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>> --
>> DISCLAIMER:
>> "I hereby disclaim any responsibility for the currency or accuracy of
>> the reported data and/or the performance of the Investments in your
>> portfolio, unless performance has exceeded your expectations."
>>
>
>
>
--
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the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In
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the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
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