^djuscl 315 breakout yeahhhh
________________________________
From: "inpestorpembela...@gmail.com" <inpestorpembela...@gmail.com>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Mon, October 12, 2009 8:39:44 PM
Subject: Re: [ob] Dow 10,000...
Kl gak salah di milis ini beberapa bulan lalu ada yg prediksi (kl gak salah
Stocksforliving) Dow akan ke 10000 sebelum mengalami koreksi besar kembali ke
lowestnya thn lalu. (Cmiiw)
Just be prepare for the worst.
Disclaimer on
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powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT
________________________________
From: "Aria Bela Nusa" <ariab...@centrin. net.id>
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:58:44 +0700
To: <obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com>
Subject: [ob] Dow 10,000...
Dow
10,000
By Colin Twiggs
October 12, 3:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET)
These
extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be
interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be
found at Terms of
Use.
We remain
in the high-risk period following the end of the third quarter. The Dow is also
testing its key resistance level of 10000, while the FTSE 100 and ASX 200 are
testing their key level of 5000. Upward breakout would confirm a bull market,
while respect of these levels would warn of a secondary correction.
In the
long term, we are not out of the woods. John Mauldin in Thoughts From
The Frontline highlights recent research by Peter Bernholz (Professor of
Economics at the University of Basel, Switzerland) into the causes of
hyper-inflation. In his book Monetary
Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships, Bernholz
analyzes 12 of the largest episodes of hyper-inflation in the last 20 years.
All were caused by financing huge public budget deficits through money creation
and he concludes that the tipping point for hyper-inflation occurs when
government deficits exceed 40% of expenditures.
US budget deficits of 40 per
cent or more are projected for 2009 and 2010, a clear warning despite the
current credit contraction. If hyper-inflationoccurs, traders would want to be
short on bonds and
long on real assets such as stocks, precious metals and real estate. The recent
surge in gold indicates that inflationary fears are growing.
Commodities
Baltic Dry
Index reversal above 2500 indicates that demand for bulk commodity shipping is
recovering — a positive sign for commodity prices and resources stocks.
Retracement that respects the September low would signal the start of a primary
advance.
The RJ/CRB
Commodities Index found support at 250 and is now rallying to test 270;
breakout would confirm a primary advance to 300*. Reversal below 247 is now
unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.
*
Target calculation: 266 + ( 266 - 232 ) = 300
USA
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow
found support at 9500 before rallying to test 10000. Reversal below 9500 would
indicate a secondary correction, while breakout above 10000 would signal
another primary advance. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), however, still shows a
bearish divergence and reversal below zero would indicate a correction. In the
long term, breakout above 10000 would offer a target of 12000*; failure of
support at 8000 is unlikely, but would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.
*
Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 - 8000 ) = 12000
