welcome back CUMI... hajar BUMI tuh... :) 2009/7/29 CUMI.JK (Buy, TP 5000) <cumie...@gmail.com>
> > > Ini kata neng Daisy Suryo loh > > Q: Cumi-cumi mempunyai delapan kaki atau delapan tangan? > > *BUMI: Upgraded to Buy PO Rp4,000* > *Daisy Suryo upgraded BUMI to Buy as she believes the twin woes of REPO > and MTN issuance are now behind the company, and we can now focus on BUMI's > core business **which should benefit from stronger thermal coal px into > 4Q.* We remain confident of our US$80/t coal px forecast for JFY10-11. > Our concern with BUMI are still present given the Bakrie group's aggressive > bizz strategy and potentially huge development capex but we feel it is > likely that BUMI will bring in strategic investors to share the load. > Concern on corp. governance will still linger in my view, but for now the > potential for forced sales, asset pledges, asset injections etc becomes less > likely. So perhaps this is also a good time to remind that BUMI is a good > coal sector proxy given its: 1) dominance as the world’s 2nd-largest > seaborne coal exporter, 2) largest coal stock and most liquid stock in Indo, > 3) superior logistics & infrastructure, 4) robust growth profile combined w/ > long reserve life. BUMI now trades on 9.5x '10 PE and at 18% disc to our > NPV. This implies coal px of US$72/t, or 8% shy of current spot px, but > Daisy points out that during up-cycles and recovery periods, valuation tend > to overshoot their mean by 1-2 std deviations. She sets her PO at Rp4,000 > implying 17x '10 PE, which is still a 30% disc to the previous upcycle. > > >
