Source berita darimana pak? Sori kl source tercantum di attachment, sy gak bisa liat attachment...
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Herman" <power8...@...> wrote: > > > > > Positive inventory data across the board > > Global pulp producers' inventories and European pulp consumers' inventories > > were down considerably in June on a sequential basis, according to PPPC and > > Utipulp. Also, according to Europulp, pulp inventories were down > significantly at > > European ports in June. The de-stocking process along the whole chain has been > > happening faster than we anticipated. This, coupled with faster than > forecasted > > pulp price increases could result in upside risks to our current pulp price > estimates > > of US$530/t in 2009 and US$570/t in 2010. > > Global producers' inventories down to 29 days > > PPPC (Pulp and Paper Products Council) reported monthly pulp markets > statistics > > for June 2009. Global producers' inventories were down to 29 days versus 34 > > days in May and 32 days a year ago. On hardwood, inventories decreased to 33 > > days of supply versus 38 days in May and 35 days a year ago. Such low > inventory > > levels leave pulp producers in a more comfortable situation to go through the > > seasonally weaker Northern Hemisphere summer months. > > European consumers are also de-stocked > > According to Utipulp (European Market Wood Pulp Users), pulp consumers' > > inventories were 742ktons in June, down 5% MoM, 28% YoY and 36% below > > historical average of 1,168ktons. However, in our view, given paper producers' > > higher working capital needs, inventories at the consumer level should stay > low > > for the remainder of the year. > > China remains the question mark; US/Europe: signs of life > > Also according to PPPC, pulp shipments to China in June were slightly down > > MoM (-1%), but still up 67% YTD. Shipments to China were 722ktons in June, > > versus 727ktons in May and ~800ktons monthly average since December 2008. > > We have been calling for lower demand from China after the most recent pulp > > buying spree since late 2008 and believe the downward trend in pulp shipments > to > > China could continue over 2H09. On a positive note, pulp shipments to US and > > Europe were up 11% and 9% MoM, respectively, showing pulp demand might be > > picking up in these markets. > > VCP leveraged to higher prices; prefer Suzano on valuation > > This week, VCP announced intentions to increase pulp prices for all regions, > > effective in August, which could take European prices to US$550-560/t. VCP is > > the most leveraged to increasing pulp prices - for each US$50/t price > increase, > > we estimate 2010e EBITDA would increase by 20%. As for Suzano, we estimate > > each US$50/t price increase represents a 10% increase to 2010e EBITDA. We > > prefer Suzano (BUY, R$21/share PO) mostly as it is trading at 6.8x EV/EBITDA > > 2010E, compared to VCP (Neutral, US$13/ADR PO) at 9.6x. > > > > This e-mail is confidential and intended only for the use of the individual > or entity named above and may contain information that is priviledged. If you > are not the intended recipient, you are notified that any dissemination, > distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. You may from > time to time be provided with investment and financial related information > and reports, including but not limited to, research reports and market or > securities specific analysis. Please note that the information is provided to > you for information only. All of the information report and analysis made > should be taken as having been prepared for the purpose of general > circulation and without regard to any specific investment objective, > financial situation or the needs of any particular person who may receive the > information, report or analysis (including yourself). Any recommendation or > advice that may be expressed in or inferred from such information, reports or > analysis therefore does not take into account and may not be suitable for > your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs >
