Rupanya tante el mindahin duitnya ke sg..
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's government raised its economic forecast for
2009 as the economy emerged from the deepest recession since its 1965
independence amid a rebound in manufacturing and exports.
Gross domestic product will shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year,
less than an earlier forecast for a contraction of as much as 9 percent, the
trade ministry said in a statement today. The economy rose an annualized 20.4
percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking a revised
12.7 percent between January and March, it said.
The revised forecast "reflects the less severe contraction in the first half
of the year, while the underlying economic conditions remain weak," the
ministry said. The expansion last quarter was better than the median estimate
for a 13.4 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey of 12 economists.
Governments worldwide have pledged about $2 trillion in stimulus to counter
the global recession, helping stabilize sales by exporters including Japan's
Nissan Motor Co. and South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. The region's stocks
are among the world's best performers this year and the International Monetary
Fund has raised its growth forecast for emerging Asia.
"If the Singapore economy can report improvement in export and production, it
certainly suggests that elsewhere in Asia we will also see some sequential
improvement in underlying demand," said Song Seng-Wun, regional economist at
CIMB-GK Securities Pte in Singapore.
Bouncing Back
Singapore's $161 billion economy contracted 3.7 percent last quarter from a
year earlier, better than the median estimate for a 5.4 percent decline in a
Bloomberg survey.
Manufacturing, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, fell 1.5 percent
from a year earlier, after sliding a revised 24.3 percent in the three months
ended March. Industrial production has gained as pharmaceutical companies
boosted output and exports.
"Asia is bouncing back in a V-shaped fashion," said David Carbon, head of
economic and currency research at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.
"Industrial production is 65 percent back to pre-crisis levels and exports have
recovered about one-third of their lost territory."
India's industrial production increased at the fastest pace in eight months in
May, while Malaysia's declined the least in six months. South Korea's output
rose more than estimated and China's accelerated. China will release gross
domestic product data on July 16.
The Japanese government said yesterday the economy is "picking up," and
upgraded its view of exports, business sentiment and consumer spending.
'Peter Out'
Asian policy makers have slashed borrowing costs and pledged more than $950
billion of stimulus plans to boost local consumer and business spending and
offset the trade slowdown. The IMF said this month emerging Asian economies
will probably expand 5.5 percent this year, more than a 4.8 percent estimate in
April.
The faster-than-expected growth "owes to improved prospects in China and
India, in part reflecting substantial macroeconomic stimulus and a
faster-than-expected turnaround in capital flows," the fund said July 8.
"However, the recent acceleration in growth is likely to peter out unless there
is a recovery in advanced economies."
The "volatile" pharmaceutical industry is helping shore up Singapore's
economy, said Tai Hui, head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard
Chartered Plc in Singapore.
"If you look at the underlying economy such as the manufacturing of
electronics, as well as the services sector, it does seem like the growth
momentum has yet to fully recover," the economist said.
Las Vegas Sands
Singapore's services industry declined 5.1 percent last quarter, after
shrinking by a similar pace in the first three months of the year. The
construction industry gained 18.3 percent last quarter as Las Vegas Sands Corp.
and other developers worked to complete hotels, office towers and condominiums.
"Singapore's recovery will be more pronounced than others in the region
because pharmaceuticals swung the industrial production numbers a lot more than
it did in other countries," said Vishnu Varathan, a regional economist at
Forecast Singapore Pte. "We'll really be getting ahead of ourselves to say the
recession is in the rear view mirror. Output levels are still well off where we
were before the crisis."
To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at
sad...@bloomberg.net
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