Ceritanya : Hati2 yang invest di BNBR karena targetnya nggak realis
akhir tahun ini ke 400. Mending main saham2 lain yah mbah
On 5/8/09, jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> wrote:
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> Baca pdf researh Mandiri dibawah ini:
>
> - BUMI fair price 1815, hari ini 1960. Masih cocok dibanding yg
> kasih cuman 500... hehehe...
> - UNSP fair price 250, hari ini 690. Ada yg punya research
> pembanding untuk UNSP ?.
> - BTEL fair price 68, hari ini 107.
> - ENRG fair price 180, hari ini 280.
> - ELTY fair price 250, hari ini 210
> - BNBR fair price 106 based on fair price anak perusahan,
> fair price 129 based on market price anak perusahaan hari ini.
>
> Cuman ELTY dan BNBR yang belum mencapai Fair price.
>
> Kalo EL mau BNBR akhir tahun menjadi 400, maka saham
> anak perusahaan harus naik = 400/129 = 3,1 kali.
>
> Jadi akhir tahun:
> - BUMI harus menjadi = 3,1 x 1960 = 6076
> - UNSP = 3,1 X 690 = 2139
> - dst.
>
> Target BNBR EL sangat berat sekali kecuali minyak balik
> diatas 100 dollar.
>
> Ada yg percaya minyak balik ke 100 pada akhir tahun ?.
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indra affandi
> <indras...@...> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > For those who miss the rally
> >
> > BNBR’s listed
> > subsidiaries, which contribute 84.5% to BNBR value, have experienced
> average
> > 142.9% stock price rally for the last 1 month while BNBR stock price only
> > increased by 66.0%. Debt restructuring amounting to Rp4.26tn relaxed
> > solvability pressure by lengthening debt maturity date. Beside that, SPIJ
> sale,
> > resulted in US$55.5mn additional cash, strengthened the company’s cash
> > position. The stock is undervalued with current market price putting BNBR
> as if
> > it o nly had BUMI and ELTY, neglecting the remaining listed and
> non-listed
> > subsidiaries. Using SOTP method, we deem BNBR fair price of Rp129/share
> based
> > on market price and Rp106/share based on our estimated fair price on
> listed
> > subsidiaries’ values.
> >
> > Lower solvability risk. The company
> > entered into debt restructuring agreement that provides some relaxation
> after
> > high solvability tension resulting from its Rp4.26tn obligation to
> Northstar
> > consortium which originally scheduled to mature this year. Basically,
> this debt
> > restructuring agreed on (1) lengthening debt maturity (Rp310bn on 2009,
> and
> > Rp3.95tn on 2012), and (2) charging interest expense (15.0%-19.0%) that
> will be
> > deferred and paid as a bullet payment along with principal maturity.
> >
> > Stronger cash position. In late April
> > 2009, the company sold 24.5% ownership in SPIJ, steel pipe manufacture
> > subsidiary, raising US$55.5mn cash. We view it positively because (1)
> SPIJ has
> > been less profitable relative to BNBR’s listed subsidiaries, and (2)
> the
> > proceeds ensure the company’s solvability to meet its Rp279.0bn tranche
> B
> > debt which l matures on Sept 2009.
> >
> > Buy BNBR, get UNSP, BTEL,
> > and ENRG for free! A check on BNBR value composition reveals
> > that at the current price of Rp83/share, BNBR value is approximately
> equal to
> > its ownership only in BUMI and ELTY. Therefore, rather than collecting
> all of
> > BNBR’s subsidiaries stocks individually, it would be more profitable to
> > acquire them collectively by buying BNBR shares. Moreover, investors
> would get
> > not only its listed subsidiaries, but also its non-listed infrastructure
> > subsidiaries. These non-listed subsidiaries have already won several
> > infrastructure projects which are expected to start in the next couple of
> > years, once the economy recovers.
> >
> > Valuation. We derived
> > BNBR’s fair price using SOTP method. We apply a book-value multiple of
> > 1.0x to value the non-listed subsidiaries. For listed subsidiaries, we
> use
> > market prices and Mandiri Sekuritas’ fair price estimate separately
> > (except for ENRG that uses consensus fair price estimate because it is
> outside
> > our coverage). Market price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
> > Rp129/share while fair price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
> > Rp106/share.
> >
> > What are the risks?Main risks in
> > investing on BNBR stock are changes in ownership on its subsidiaries and
> > commodity price fluctuation that heavily impacted BUMI, UNSP and ENRG
> > performance.
> >
> >
> > Yohan Setio
> > +6221
> > 5296 9548
> > yohan.se...@...
> > Plaza
> > Mandiri 28th floor
> > Fax:
> > +62 21 527 5711
> > Phone:
> > +62 21 526 3445
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
>
>
>
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