KOMPOR...
Kerjaan si EL nih..
Buy BNBR, get UNSP, BTEL, and ENRG for free!
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-----Original Message-----
From: indra affandi <indras...@yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 8 May 2009 04:40:33
To: obrolan<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [ob] Fw: FOCUS (08-May-2009) BNBR: For those who miss the rally
For those who miss the rally
BNBR’s listed
subsidiaries, which contribute 84.5% to BNBR value, have experienced average
142.9% stock price rally for the last 1 month while BNBR stock price only
increased by 66.0%. Debt restructuring amounting to Rp4.26tn relaxed
solvability pressure by lengthening debt maturity date. Beside that, SPIJ sale,
resulted in US$55.5mn additional cash, strengthened the company’s cash
position. The stock is undervalued with current market price putting BNBR as if
it o nly had BUMI and ELTY, neglecting the remaining listed and non-listed
subsidiaries. Using SOTP method, we deem BNBR fair price of Rp129/share based
on market price and Rp106/share based on our estimated fair price on listed
subsidiaries’ values.
Lower solvability risk. The company
entered into debt restructuring agreement that provides some relaxation after
high solvability tension resulting from its Rp4.26tn obligation to Northstar
consortium which originally scheduled to mature this year. Basically, this debt
restructuring agreed on (1) lengthening debt maturity (Rp310bn on 2009, and
Rp3.95tn on 2012), and (2) charging interest expense (15.0%-19.0%) that will be
deferred and paid as a bullet payment along with principal maturity.
Stronger cash position. In late April
2009, the company sold 24.5% ownership in SPIJ, steel pipe manufacture
subsidiary, raising US$55.5mn cash. We view it positively because (1) SPIJ has
been less profitable relative to BNBR’s listed subsidiaries, and (2) the
proceeds ensure the company’s solvability to meet its Rp279.0bn tranche B
debt which l matures on Sept 2009.
Buy BNBR, get UNSP, BTEL,
and ENRG for free! A check on BNBR value composition reveals
that at the current price of Rp83/share, BNBR value is approximately equal to
its ownership only in BUMI and ELTY. Therefore, rather than collecting all of
BNBR’s subsidiaries stocks individually, it would be more profitable to
acquire them collectively by buying BNBR shares. Moreover, investors would get
not only its listed subsidiaries, but also its non-listed infrastructure
subsidiaries. These non-listed subsidiaries have already won several
infrastructure projects which are expected to start in the next couple of
years, once the economy recovers.
Valuation. We derived
BNBR’s fair price using SOTP method. We apply a book-value multiple of
1.0x to value the non-listed subsidiaries. For listed subsidiaries, we use
market prices and Mandiri Sekuritas’ fair price estimate separately
(except for ENRG that uses consensus fair price estimate because it is outside
our coverage). Market price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
Rp129/share while fair price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
Rp106/share.
What are the risks?Main risks in
investing on BNBR stock are changes in ownership on its subsidiaries and
commodity price fluctuation that heavily impacted BUMI, UNSP and ENRG
performance.
Yohan Setio
+6221
5296 9548
yohan.se...@mandirisek.co.id
Plaza
Mandiri 28th floor
Fax:
+62 21 527 5711
Phone:
+62 21 526 3445
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