Bank Negara Indonesia : buy before 1Q09 results releaseFerry Wong (analyst)
expects BNI to report strong 1Q09 results on 29 April. Ahead of the results, he
has upgraded EPS by 15% and 10% in 2009-10 and raised target price by 60% to
Rp1,550 from Rp970. The target price implies a target multiple of 1.3x P/BV,
based on an RoE forecast of 11% in 2009 and 14% in 2010. BNI’s 1Q09 net profit
should reach Rp600bn, tripling YoY and rising 60% QoQ, while pre-provision
profit should reach Rp2.4tr, up 70% YoY. Operating expenses could decline on a
YoY and QoQ basis; BNI was the only bank in Indonesia that managed to reduce
expenses due to operational efficiencies in 2008. Meanwhile, interest income
and fee-based income growth should be strong in 1Q09, in-line with the
favourable banking climate for the
industry.http://macq.wir.jp/e.ut?e=4rsTWm6BY6d9KCGwmXmlgsC856j Astra Agro
Lestari: 1Q09 results below Macq expectationsSunaina Dhanuka (analyst) thinks
that
AALI’s 1Q09 results are weaker than expected, with net profit accounting for
14% of full year estimate, Underperform maintained. The realized average CPO
price was US$470/t during the quarter, lower than the market average US$520/t.
Meanwhile, processing and harvesting costs came in higher than expected,
declining by only 5% YoY (vs a CPO price decline of 53%). About 33% of AALI's
cost of production is FFB purchased from plasma/third party estates, the cost
for which would have fallen by 40-50% YoY. This means that AALI's balance cost
of production rose by 12% YoY, despite fuel prices coming down. Having said all
that, Sunaina’s FY09 EPS forecast assumes an average CPO price of US$400/t. If
the CPO price remains around the current level of US$650/t, there is
significant upside risk to her numbers. Every US$50/t price realisation above
her assumption of US$400/t would raise her FY09 EPS estimate by 25%. On her
current forecast, AALI trades on 16.2x
FY09 P/E, 4% dividend yield, and 4.4x FY09 P/BV. Snippets:Politics – Golkar is
signalling another possibility on coalition with Democratic Party (PD). Vice
Chairman DPP Golkar, Agung Laksono, explained that the option of Golkar-PD
coalition is still open, aside from decision made last week of making Jusuf
Kalla as a presidential candidate. PGAS – Government of Indonesia expects to do
another debt conversion to equity in Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ, Rp2,250,
OP, TP: Rp3,100) after converting Rp27bn debt or increase government ownership
to 56.46% from 54.58% on 16 April, explained Sofyan Djalil, the SOE Minister,
without stating the expected amount for the next debt-equity swap, according to
Investor Daily. Aneka Tambang – (ANTM IJ, Rp1,280, NR) is seeking a strategic
partner to build Fero Nickel IV (FeNi IV) in Buli, Halmahera, using US$1.8bn
budget. Antam has finished feasibility study and expects the FeNi IV to be
ready to operate in
2014. Antam targets 12k tons of ferronickel and 2.9mn tons of gold productions
this year. Bank sector – Liquidity condition has improved significantly in the
medium-sized banks. Third-party funds grew by 33% yoy to Rp27.5tn in Bank OCBC
NISP and grew by 42% to Rp13.9tn in Bank BTPN (BTPN IJ, Rp1,690, NR) in 1Q09.
Therefore, LDRs for these banks fell to 70% level from 80-90% level in December
2008. Swine flu – Government of Indonesia is blocking imports for pork and
derivative pork products as measure to prevent swine flu spread in the country
and is doing medical checking on 9mn pigs living in the country.NOTICEThe
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