Bung Up-trends, mau tanya : d milist apa ya Bung. thx & have a great coan
--- Sudeswanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > ada yang masuk BLTA terlalu banyak dan lagi dipaksa > keluar... > > -----Original Message----- > From: up_trends [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: 03 Desember 2006 21:15 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Sepondok Banyak > Persepsi---BLTAAAAA??????????????? > > > Om boncel dll, sorry semuanya, saya tidak bilang > anda& teman anda yg > marah marah, kalau itu memang betul , well mungkin > saya kelewat apa > yg anda bilang. ato saaya gak tau, mungkin dah ada > cloning disini?? > hehehe. > saya hanya mengaddresskan pertanyaan saya ke 2 org > yg > pernah 'discuss' sama saya di bumi & blta. org yg > pernah bilang sok > tahu dll. gitongnya dah gak keliatan lagi? cuman > nongol sekali > sekali doang:) > > well ttg bahasa bermakna ganda,senior disini pun > mana ada yg pernah > bilang sesuatu dgn pasti? ini stock market > semuanya grey area.apa > lagi saya yg masi bau kencur, wong Om Vibby yg dah > keluarin buku ta > aja pernah di kritik abis abisan? > pas blta naik saya sendiri dah bilang dia break > ngak ada volume. tp > ditentang ama jagoan ta yg lain kalo vol gak > penting, soalnya kita > tetep bisa ditipu dgn vol. well itu bisa aja > betul, tp BLTA setiap > kali breakout pasti ada volnya. itu yg menyebabkan > saya buang habis > blta saya. simple kan?lg pula dah naik 20%an, mau > apa lagi? dan > sebelum listing mungkin cuman saya yg rada pesimis > dng blta, dimana > yg lain sudah pada gak tahan mau cuan gara gara > ipo di sgx, dan > target target upside research FA yg dikeluarkan > oleh broker broker > asing? ak,db,dp, dll ? bener? hehhehe lagian kalo > memang ipo bisa > bisa 2500 kenapa harga di indo masi 2100? minimal > blta di indo dah > diborong, harga di indo harusnya dah 2450 ato > sama. disini dah mulai > kecium [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > disini yg saya tahu hanya 1 senior yg bisa > (berani) kasi prediksi > akurat. Mbah. saya inget, palu bdmn, palu .. dll. > waktu itu saya > ngeshort pas mbah kasi instruksi tsb, mayan cuan > 3% satu hari? > > nah sekarang, apa saya mau beli blta? nah kalo dgn > harga segini, > baru saya mulai ngelirik, di brp saya masuk? mmmmm > mosok gak ada yg > tahu?:) bentar lagi deh, yg jelas blta masi > continously making new > low. tp ada kemungkinan technicall rebound bentar > lagi terjadi. > > buat yg dah beli blta di 2125:), nih saya dpt dr > milis tetangga, > mungkin dah ada yg baca. tanggapan si kevin ama > target CLSA. > > Hi, Investor > > As you may know, yesterday CLSA issued a report > downgrading BLT. > However, I am not sure whether that is the right > call based on the > following points: > > 1. Have not accounted for rate increases of 30-40% > in chemicals > > 2. Not sure whether his estimate for oil is based > on net delivery > including scrapping or excluding scrapping, so > 6.7% growth could be > lower. Looking at his estimate for chemical, I > think not yet include > scrapping, so actual fleet growth will be lower. > > 3. Actually nominal chemical tanker fleet has been > growing at more > than 10% for the past few years, yet rates still > rose 10-15% every > year even without the new IMO regulation. So with > the new regulation > rates should rise even faster than 10-15% (or the > 30-40% this year) > given same rate of fleet growth. This does not > even account for the > fact that most of the additional ships will be > essentially product > tankers. Yet CLSA assumes only 3% growth. Drewry > sees it at more > than 25% in 2007! > > 4. Given orderbook is around 30% and delivery is > over 3-3.5 years, > the 11% in 2007 I believe is not yet accounting > for scrapping. Yet, > 17% is already over 25 years of age. Therefore > fleet growth will > actually be materially lower. > > 5. I also do not agree that utilization rate for > oil will drop from > 93% in 2006 to 88% in 2007. Normally it is not > utilization that is > impacted when markets go down, it is rates. As > such assuming rates > go down AND utilization also goes down is double > counting. > > 6. The assumed decline in gross revenue/day of oil > tankers from > USD29,400/day in 2006 to USD23,500/day is equal to > an assumption of > oil TCE rates effectively declining 25%, not the > noted 20% due to > the impact of voyage costs. I think it is fair to > believe oil tanker > rates will be lower in 2007 than 2006, but 25% is > I think too much. > > 7. Even if we assume CLSA is totally correct on > their numbers, why > should our target PER and EV/EBITDA in 2007 based > on Rp1570 be 6.2x > and lower than 4.6x compared to peer at average > 10.6x and 6.9x. > Having said that, need to check how the CLSA per > and EV/EBITDA has > been calculated, as I can seem to get the same > number. > > Based on the foregoing, I believe the conclusion > is erroneous. This > also happened in Feb when they target price Rp1150 > when price was > Rp1460 and then actual rose to Rp2000 within 3 > months (granted that > was during a bull run in Indonesia and oil tanker > rates were > better). I will speak with James and explain the > above, although it > is unlikely that he will change his call, which is > fine. > > Don't get me wrong though. There will be a time > when we may have > achieved peak value and such a call is reasonable, > but based on the > above I do not believe that time is now (though of > course I am not > infallible . > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "adi > chandra" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > > > > hahhaha..bener Om Boncel....panjang amat > keterangannya....makin > hari ni > > milis kebanyakan bahasa dukunnya, mending kalo > mau kasih pendapat > yang jelas > > ya Pak, saya mohon banget, bahasa ramalan saham > jgn di samakan > dengan bahasa > > peramal dong, toh kalo bener ya "TOB BGT" kalo > salah ya "Ora opo2". > > Saya pribadi sering ikutin beberapa ramalan or > prediksi dari > beberapa teman > > yg di tulis di milis ini, tak ikutin > petunjuknya, kalo bener ya aku > > terimakasih, kalo salah mosok iyo aku teror, > namanya orang belajar > bener > > atau salah silahkan tanya pada diri sendiri. > > > > > > On 12/3/06, boncel66 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > === message truncated === ____________________________________________________________________________________ Any questions? 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