ane juga suka saham2 berbau ENERGI. ini salah satu cuplikan dari dailycrux *Natural Gas Is Ready to Rally* *By Jeff Clark **April 20, 2009*
There is no shortage of natural gas bears in the investment community.
Natural gas prices have been falling for months and so far bearish bets have
paid off.
But if they're smart, the bears will take their profits now and hibernate
for the rest of the year. Natural gas has bottomed and is ready to rally –
big time.
Of course, the bears will argue otherwise. But they're wrong... They're
letting logic cloud their thinking and it's blinding them to the opportunity
in front of them.
Logic says there is a glut of natural gas the market. Logic dictates the
oversupply of natural gas should pressure prices lower until the forces of
supply and demand deal with the glut. And logic is correct.
What the bears are missing here, though, is the market already knows this.
The market knows there's a glut. The market knows natural gas prices have to
move lower to correct the supply-and-demand imbalance. And the market has
already responded.
Last week, natural gas prices dropped as low as $3.50 per million British
thermal units (BTUs). That's as low as prices have been in nearly seven
years. In fact, $3.50 is widely regarded as the "shut in" price for natural
gas. That's the price at which natural gas drillers are better off closing
down the well than continuing because it costs more to extract the gas than
what the drillers can sell it for.
In other words, natural gas cannot fall much below $3.50 before drillers
start shutting wells. Once that happens, the forces of supply and demand
start going the other way. And the market knows this...
Which is why natural gas bounced off of the $3.50 price level and is now
trading at $3.86. The market has already discounted the natural gas supply
glut. It started discounting it in the fourth quarter last year when, for
the first time in a decade, natural gas prices fell during the last three
months of the year.
Now the market is ready to start discounting a drawdown in natural gas
supplies. The drawdown won't happen immediately. Heck, it may not happen for
several more months. But the market is a discounting mechanism. Prices will
start to increase well before the fundamental factors support such a move.
We should soon see natural gas prices begin to trade more in line with their
historic relationship with oil.
As you can tell from the following chart, it now takes roughly 15 million
BTUs of natural gas to buy one barrel of oil...
Historically, this ratio has trended around 10. In fact, for most of the
past decade, the ratio has been closer to eight.
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The current 15-to-1 ratio is the most extreme reading of the past 20
years. This means one of two things has to be true: Either oil is too
expensive or natural gas is too cheap.
If oil is too expensive, then oil prices will fall while natural gas holds
steady. If natural gas is too cheap, then there's the potential for a huge
rally in the works.
Either way, the downside to buying natural gas right here is limited and the
upside is huge.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
2009/4/21 Rei <highwaysta...@gmail.com>
>
>
> hehehe ada yg mau nemenin saya?
>
> 2009/4/21 JsxTrader <jsxtra...@yahoo.com>
>
>>
>>
>> Ente maunya kontan aje nih…, dasar trader !…, inpes doong.. J
>>
>>
>>
>> JT
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:
>> obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *hst auto
>> *Sent:* 21 April 2009 16:42
>> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [ob] pgas kok kayak hidup
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> hiks.. sayang gak naik hari ini.
>> mudah2an besok Break Dance .. eh Break Out
>>
>> 2009/4/21 JsxTrader™ <jsxtra...@yahoo.com>
>>
>>
>>
>> Sabar.., nanti kita mainkan, stay tune aja...
>>
>> Powered by TLKM BullBerry®
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> *From*: Ronny Abadi
>> *Date*: Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:07:52 +0800 (SGT)
>> *To*: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
>> *Subject*: [ob] pgas kok kayak hidup
>>
>> salam kenal buat seluruh warga OB, sy tanya ada apa dengan pgas ya, tolong
>> masukan dari senior senior OB GBU
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> Selalu bisa chat di profil jaringan, blog, atau situs web pribadi!
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>> Yahoo! memungkinkan Anda selalu bisa chat melalui Pingbox. Coba!
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