So setelah naik tinggi akan anjlok lagi krn alasan technical? Binun... On Thu, Apr 9, 2009 at 4:23 PM, Yuta Tiziano <yuta.tizi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > Embah, > > Mengenai pertanyaan Embah apakah Dow Jones akan buat new low. Ini saya > quote wawancara dari Time dengan Technical Analyst dari BoA/ML. Baca > statement di alinea terakhir. > > Rgds, > Yuta > > Is the Stock Market Headed Back Down? > By John Curran > >  > After a four-week rally, stocks moved lower on Monday and Tuesday. Does > this spell the end of the uptrend or just healthy consolidation? To find > out, TIME contributing editor John Curran spoke with Mary Ann Bartels, stock > market technical analyst at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. > > TIME: After a big rally, stocks are moving lower this week. Should we be > concerned? > Bartels: We view this as a consolidation within a more bullish context. > That is, we think we can still achieve recovery highs with this rally. > > So this is healthy? > No, I wouldn't say healthy. What we said coming into 2009 is that stocks > would enter a base-building phase that would, over time, heal the technical > damage done to the market in 2008. What base-building means is that you go > into a trading range. But we also could have some very exciting rallies in > the process of base-building. > > So does this rally have more to go? > This rally can hit 1055 on the S&P 500 and 9800 on the Dow, but longer > term, we have to view this in the context of a base-building process, which > means that we are probably going to go back down and retest the lows before > this process is over. [The stock market's lows were 667 on the S&P 500 and > 6440 on the Dow, both reached in early March.] > > The S&P 500 index is lately yielding more than Treasuries, be it the > T-bill, the five-year note or the 10 year. This is quite rare, but is it > significant? > > Whenever the dividend yield on the S&P 500 rises above 3%, which it has, > that's significant, even if it's not above the 10-year Treasury. It says > stocks are attractive. That said, we are very cautious about what to own in > this market. Bottom line: If you can find high-quality companies -- meaning > they have a good balance sheet and provide yield -- we think for the > long-term investor this is now an attractive way to invest. The > consumer-staples sector (i.e., food, beverage, tobacco, etc.) is a good > sector for finding these types of stocks. > > So base-building allows this rally to continue for a while, but you're also > saying that it could take the Dow back below 7000? What determines our fate? > Whether we return to the lows will really depend on what happens to the > financial-sector stocks. The government has provided many new programs to > help fix our banking system, and how those programs work will determine > whether the financial stocks have to go to new lows. The broader stock > market has been building a technical base since October, but financial > stocks are just starting to build a base. The risk we have is that financial > stocks will have to go to new lows, and that will cause more volatility in > the overall market. > > Are there any parallels to this stock market? > > We've likened this market to 1937 and 1938. In '37 you saw a 50% correction > within the equity market. But in 1938, from March '38 to November '38, the > market had a 60% rally. That was all part of a base-building process. The > stock market really didn't make its low until 1942, and that was a marginal > new low -- all in the context of building a base. So what we're trying to > tell investors is that the key to this market now is patience -- that this > is going to take time but that this trading-range process will, over time, > heal the market. And eventually, at some point in time, we will launch into > a new bull market. > > O.K., back to the present: With stocks dropping this week, at what market > level do you start to believe that we're going back to retest the lows of > March? > If we go below 740 on the S&P and around 7030 on the Dow. > > Good to know. Thanks. > > Powered by my VerryBerry® > >
