Wieden, 5:30 am, 19 February 2009 Freezing cold here in Wieden, Vienna!
People in Eastern Europe predict that the Eastern Eurozone Line is to suffer from regional economic debacle in bigger magnitude than that of East Asia in 1997/1998. Total Eastern Europe's current indebtedness is nearing 2 trillion USD abroad of which majority is in short-term maturities. Unless it soon repays, the amount will roll over and twist up to a third of its GDP. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, Ukraine, Belarus, and Iceland are crying in parish for help. Aimee predicts whether in months or even in weeks, the world is going to find out that Eastern Europe & Europe's financial system is sunk. Additionally, they have no such a `The EU Federal Reserve" yet of which `lender of last resort-ness' is absolutely needed. ECB should have cut its rate to zero & bought in-bulk of bonds, but it doesn't. IMF has been in so as to help, but sanely, the amount they need is beyond the limit of IMF itself. The same as what they did to our region in 1997/1998, Aimee is rest-assured that they will issue its final weapon, SDR (Special Drawing Rights) which can lay the ground even dustier. Don't they comprehend the terrain that a failure to salvage any of this country will trigger a massive crisis of which contagion can widespread throughout EU? Wew what's in the mind of this much of Ex-Soviet's government? By the way, onto the recession status: the reason why deflation won't last long is because of the nature of current debt de- leveraging is only short-termed. In this scenario, dollar depreciation is inevitable in the long run. I predict around 1.5 2 years from this moment. Please be extra careful of you who hold `big fat dollars'. Can inflation take place while the Neverland is still in deep recession? Let me be clear: YES. It might even be worse than that of Japan. If you still reckoned, Japanese do have much better saving rate during its lost decade compared to Neverlanders. We have anticipated this with short-coverings on precious metals before its `mania euphoria' to take cover from upcoming inflation, dollar depreciation, and further economic collapse. I have instructed our soldiers to set strongly-hedged portfolio as our big agenda combined with tight entry & exit point in every linear. Our nearest plan is FS on `properties' & `short-covering oil'. We've been eyeing on National Oil Varco. On Sunday I am leaving Vienna and going to Dubai to meet local businesspeople and a Prime Group of Korea's counterpart of which property & construction project is in serious trouble as well as foreseeing whether something can be learnt from this `iconic city of real estate and construction of this century'. I promise to report to you of our survey findings. By the way, traders, just reminding, no matter how you are savvy in technical charting, there are alarming risks if your trade is against fundamental. Counting on stop loss isn't wise, either. Short term = sideways. Medium & long term = SO bearish. RATUSIMA, KALINGGA PS : Neither disclaimer nor allies is needed.
