Citigroup baru downgrade to sell.. Akibatnya apa tuh??
Saya paste dibawah yah:
Exposes Stock Weaknessϖ Downgrade to Sell/High Risk — We downgrade Indosat to
Sell/High Risk (newTP: Rp4,800) for three reasons: 1) expiry of Qatar Telecom’s
tender offer (GO)removing key stock price support; 2) premium valuations (16.1x
PE, -8.7%FCFE yield) for lackluster earnings prospects (where we cut net
recurring profitforecast by 7.1% and 5.5% in 2009, 2010) and poor free cash
flow profile in2009; 3) risk of strategy change with change in control. We
prefer PT Telkom.ϖ QT tender offer concludes — QT’s GO concludes on 18
February. We think thestock’s resilience to date hinged on the Rp7,388 offer
price for just over half ofminority shareholders’ stake (at current price,
market imputing a c.Rp3,300ex-GO price). We believe QT was successful in
acquiring close to if not all ofthe 24.2% stake, reducing Indosat’s free float
to 20.7% from 45.8%.ϖ Premium valuations, lackluster outlook — At 16.1x PE,
Indosat trades at a 41%and 38% premium to Telkom and regional wireless,
unjustified against a Citiforecasted 7.5% recurring net profit decline and
negative free cash flow profile.While Indosat’s gearing is also low, its lower
free cash flow yield means lessflexibility to boost capex to strengthen
competitive standing or raise dividendsto improve the stock’s attractiveness.ϖ
Strategy change ahead? — Ownership change places an even chance ofmanagement
change ahead. We note that while QT has boosted its presence inthe Board of
Commissioners, the Board of Directors composition is unchangedfrom prior to ST
Telemedia’s sale of a 40.8% stake to QT. A change of strategyto a much more
aggressive competitive stance could not be ruled out. This message and any
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powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT
-----Original Message-----
From: dario kurniawan <darioamran1...@yahoo.co.id>
Date: Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:46:00
To: obrolan bandar<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ISAT
ISAT dari desember akhir sampai kemaren harga begitu2 aja rangenya (5450-6000),
memang kaitannya dengan adanya TO, berhubung tanggal 18 febuari kemaren akhir
dari pendaftarannya, selanjutnya ini harga mau kemana? Volume sepi terus,
jarak TO sama harga reguler jauh banget 5500 ke 7333. Ada strategi khusus
tentang ini saham? feeling pengennya beli.
Dario Amran
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