enak aja bilang JPY translation has no cash efek emang mau hutang JPY diangsur pake rupiah
ha.ha..... kalau cuman overshot satu dua bulan sih gak masalah... tapi kalau trending terus-terusan sampai lewat 3 bulan seperti ini jadi masalah. On Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 12:04 PM, simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com>wrote: > Funds and gas flowing into PGAS > > *Event* > > 􀂃 Our channel checks highlight upside risk to distribution > volumes, early signs of > > LNG volumes being deployed to the domestic market, and the potential for > funds to > > flow from ISAT into PGAS. > > *Impact* > > 􀂃 *Muara Tawar power plant upgrade complete... upside risk to > volumes: *Our > > channel checks with the operators of the Muara Tawar power plant highlight > that > > the Muara Tawar oil to gas conversion process is complete. We understand > the > > company is now delivering over 200 MMSCFD, and PLN is requesting the full > 300 > > MMSCFD (vs our forecasts of 225MMSCFD). Further, we highlight that PGN is > > negotiating a gas sales agreement with PLN (and another third party). We > see > > upside risk to our 2009E distribution forecast of 800 MMSCFD. > > 􀂃 *ISAT funds to flow to PGAS? *We calculate that approximately > US$600m of cash > > will be returned to shareholders on 5 March 2008 after the Qatar Telecom > (QTEL > > QD, NR)/ Indosat (ISAT IJ, Rp5,700, UP, TP: Rp4,500) partial tender. We see > this > > money flowing into TLKM (TLKM IJ, Rp6,350, OP, TP: Rp7,900) and PGAS. > > However, we highlight anecdotally that numerous funds have already invested > up > > to 10% TLKM of their funds (which typically is the max limit under > investment > > mandates). PGAS therefore should be a key beneficiary. > > 􀂃 *LNG domestic volumes.... moving towards a reality? *The > government this > > week extended the export contracts for LNG from 2011–20 but a key element > to > > this contract was that TOTAL was required to sell 46% of its production > > domestically. This is consistent with our understanding that PGAS has > signed a > > 10-year MOU with TOTAL for roughly 120 MMSCFD pa. We believe this is the > first > > step towards the LNG receiving terminal in West Java becoming a reality. > > 􀂃 *US$ asset... but rupiah and Yen translation risk: *We believe > this company is a > > predominantly US$ business given the majority of its sales, costs, capex > and debt > > are denominated in US$. However, the company reports in rupiah and thus is > > subject to translation losses on its US$ and Yen debt (we estimate a forex > loss of > > Rp1.3tr for 2008) and a Yen swap (which from a cashflow perspective hedges > the > > debt but is not considered a hedge under Indonesian accounting). We > recommend > > investors focus on clean numbers (as the above translations have no cash > effect.) > > 􀂃 *Valuation attractive. *We believe the stock is attractively > trading on PER of 7.7x, > > FCF yield of 6.8%, and a div yield of 6.5%, roughly a 30% discount to the > sector in > > 2009. > > *Earnings revision* > > 􀂃 No change. > > *Price catalyst* > > 􀂃 12-month price target: Rp3,100 based on a DCF methodology. > > 􀂃 Catalyst: Increasing distribution volume and price and new gas > supply agreements. > > *Action and recommendation* > > 􀂃 We reiterate our Outperform recommendation and Rp3,100 price > target. PGAS > > appears to be executing effectively as evidenced by upside risk to our > volume > > forecasts. Further, we are encouraged by early signs that gas reserves are > starting > > to be prioritised domestically. > > > > This message and any attachment are confidential and may be privileged or > otherwise protected from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient > please telephone or e-mail the sender and delete this message and > all attachments from your system. If you are not the intended recipient you > must not copy this message or any attachment or disclose the contents to any > other person. > > > > E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, error-free or > virus-free. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors, > omissions or consequences which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. > This message is provided for informational purposes and is not intended to > nor will it create any binding legal relations. If verification is required > please request a hard-copy version. This message should not be construed as > a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial > instruments. > > > > > > >
