gimana kalo china beli perusahaan-perusahaan strategis yang harganya lagi pada murah? tambang emas, minyak, kebun sawit, pesawat terbang, mobil?
setelah dollarnya berkurang, baru di-dump On 2/14/09, Adhi Sukmono <adhis...@gmail.com> wrote: > *By David Fessler* > > As if we needed something else to concern ourselves with, the > Is-China-Going-To-Start-Selling-Treasuries worry mill is cranking up… again. > It seems every once in awhile - and more so lately - the financial pundits > begin to climb the China wall of worry. > > And it's not an unreasonable question: Last year, China became the biggest > foreign holder of U.S. securities, when it plunked down almost $66 billion > for them in October alone. > > With that big of a stick, some believe that China could bring down the U.S. > without ever setting foot here. > > Others feel it already is, by artificially setting the rate at which its > currency is tied to the dollar. Still others feel that we are worrying > needlessly, and we have nothing to worry about, as China has few other > investment alternatives. > > Will China continue to buy Treasuries? What will happen when it stops and > starts buying something else? Or worse - what if it starts dumping U.S. > debt? > > The answers to these questions may surprise you. But first, let's see if we > can get our hands around the size of China's problem. > > *The World's Biggest Cash Pile* > > Make no mistake: it's a much bigger problem for > China<http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/January/investing-in-china.html>than > it is for us. > > When you're sitting on the biggest mountain of surplus cash in the world, > what do you do with it? This is the roughly $2 trillion dollar question that > Chinese central bank officials have to wrestle with. > > And the problem just keeps getting bigger. For the first three quarters of > 2008, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by a whopping $377 > billion. That's $10 billion more than the same period in 2007. > > Why does it continue to buy them? The simple reason is that is has to, > because of its exchange rate policy. In order to keep the value of the > Chinese yuan from appreciating versus the dollar, China's central bank must > buy U.S. dollars in massive quantities. And rather than just sitting on the > physical currency - which pays zero interest - it buys foreign securities. > > What percentage of China's foreign reserves is held in U.S. Treasuries? > > No one knows for sure, but analysts generally believe the figure could be as > high as 70%. That would put China's U.S. debt paper pile at around $1.4 > trillion. > > So what are China's options if it wants to "diversify" its holdings? > > The short answer is: not many… not many at all. > > *China's Investment Options* > > - All the gold in the world… > > What about gold? That one's easy: it's estimated that all the physical gold > in the world that's ever been produced amounts to roughly 140,000 tons > (worth about $4.5 trillion dollars using $1,000 an ounce). About 75% of that > is either in coins or jewelry… not available to China, or to any other > government. > > The new gold available each year is miniscule: about 2,600 tons (almost $83 > billion dollars worth) of new gold is being mined and refined annually, > increasing the total supply by 2% per year. > > You can see that China's problem - if it wants to invest in > gold<http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/February/shorting-gold.html>as > a diversification strategy - is that there isn't enough available for > sale. 30,000 tons are held in various government central bank vaults. > Privately held bullion amount to about 20,000 tons. > > Any major purchase of gold on the open market - which is where China would > have to buy it - would drive up its price. To put this in perspective: China > buys enough U.S. treasuries in one month to pay for all the gold mined in a > year everywhere in the world. > > So we can throw gold onto the "won't pile"… > > - Other foreign currencies… > > As of the end of 2008, the value of all Eurodollars in circulation exceeded > the value of U.S. dollars. Since then, the Euro has fallen 8% against the > dollar. Other world currencies have suffered similar fates. > > Assuming China sold their dollars and bought a basket of currencies, it > would clearly have lost money on its investment. The reason is that the > global economic crisis deepened, other countries have flocked to the dollar > as the only safe haven investment… driving it up in value against all other > comers. This will likely continue to be the case. Another one for the "won't > pile"… > > - Private Sector Bonds… > > Way too risky. Most companies have been severely affected by the global > economic slowdown. Their balance sheets have decimated credit ratings across > the board, reducing much of the available corporate debt to well below > investment grade. > > *Back to Square One* > > In summary… > > 1. Will China continue to buy U.S. Treasuries? Yes. > > - If fact, purchases of U.S. debt by China will likely continue to > increase for the foreseeable future, as it continues its policy of > propping > up the Yuan. By fixing its currency to the dollar and by buying them, it > keeps both strong, thereby protecting its investment. > > 2. What will happen when it stops and starts buying something else? Forget > it. > > - There IS nothing else that's as good of an investment as the U.S. > > dollar<http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/August/weak-dollar-rising.html> > . > > 3. Would it start dumping U.S. Treasuries? Not a Chance. > > - China central bankers might as well all strap on six-shooters and begin > firing them at their feet. It would reduce the value of the Yuan, > something > China can't afford. > > For better or worse, China and the U.S. are inextricably linked in an > incestuous financial relationship. We need China to buy our debt to finance > our annual federal budget deficit, and China needs to buy dollars to prop up > its currency. > > And it's in both countries' best interest to see that things stay that way > for a long time. > > *P.S.* I didn't really have time to touch on another important aspect of > this "currency two-step." Investing in Treasuries and the effect on yields. > I'll have our editors add something for you below. > > *Today's Investment U Crib Sheet* > > Almost two months ago, Lou Basenese revealed why he wasn't a fan of > Treasuries<http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/December/the-falling-us-dollar.html>. > But yields of all bonds work the same way. If you understand some simple > basics behind them, you'll have a leg up on most investors… > > And you'll understand why knowing China is a buyer of Treasuries is > important. > > When the U.S. government sells a Treasury bond, they are borrowing money > that they pay interest on until the bond comes due - and they pay back the > original amount borrowed. > > For example: Let's say they sell a bond (which they do in increments of > $1,000) for $10,000 that pays interest of 1%, or $100. Once issued however, > the bond's price and yield are based on the demand for bonds and the current > interest rate. > > If demand is high, buyers may pay more than $10,000 for the bond. Let's say > that happens (like it did in mid-December) and the price goes up to $12,000. > > The individual who buys this bond is going to receive $100 in interest > payments regardless of the price they paid. This means they will earn a > lower percentage that the original coupon or yield. Instead of 1%, they will > receive .8%. > > The reverse is true as well. If interest rates drop, the yield could grow > larger than the original yield. > > These fluctuations occur daily and can be affected by interest rates, demand > and equities performance. Think of the yield and the price as sitting on > opposite ends of a seesaw. When one goes up the other comes down, and > contrary-wise. > > If China continues to buy Treasuries, they will increase demand, drive up > bond prices and depress treasury yields. It's a strong argument for > investing in equities and corporate bonds. Knowing this will give you an > advantage over the average investor. > -- Salam, Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! ------------------------------------ + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! 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