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-----Original Message-----
From: KC <kathleen_chu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:24:52
To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Kim Eng Indonesia Equity Daily, 12 Feb 09
Ramayana
reported sales were up 0.4% YoY to Rp336.5b in Jan 09. Same-store growth was
in negative
territory of -2.1%, the first negative SSG since July 2007. This was worse than
the company’s guideline of 0.3% and our assumption of 0%. Although we assume a
zero SSG, we still expect sales to grow by 4.1% this year, on the back of four
new stores opening, fewer than management guideline of six new stores. Other
drivers for sales growth this year
is the election, government economy stimulus and wage increase which we believe
could help purchasing power especially middle-low consumers. Maintain BUY,
target price is Rp650 (43%
potential upside).
Sales
volume of 4W in January 09 fell by 22% YoY to 32,167 units.
Toyota is reported gaining market share to
around 40% compared to 33% in January 08.
Sales volume drop in January 09 is lower than industry expectation of
32%. We see that slower economic growth, lower commodity prices as well as
tight
liquidity in banking sector discourage buyers to purchase big ticket items. We
maintain HOLD recommendation on
Astra International.
The
US congress and the White House have
reached a tentative agreement on the economy stimulus in the amount of
US$789.5b
over two years. The
US market reacted positively. Rupiah weakened and touched Rp12,000/US
dollar yesterday. The currency
depreciation is driven to some extent by rapid interest rate cuts by the
Central
Bank.
Katarina
Setiawan
Highlights
•
Ramayana
(BUY):
Flat January sales
•
Mobile-8:
Can’t increase collateral
•
Automotive:
January sales dropped 22% YoY
•
Economy:
Consumer confidence rise
From
our chartist desk
•
IDX:
Technical rebound after touching support level 1302 will give strong signal to
continue reversal. Assuming Rupiah moves sideways on fuctution and considering
increasing Baltic Dry Index last 3 days (from 1974 to 2055), our view is
positive for IDX today. Moving average on weekly chart will cross over. Today’s
trading range is between 1287-1298-1302 (support) and 1328-1347-1364
(resistance)
•
SMGR: MACD 12-26 day is in positive territory,
high demand, and money flow on upside position TRADING BUY
•
TLKM:
Money flow index is still moving sideways, no big stimulus. EXIT
