Bukan cuma AALI, Pak. Semua grup Astra, kalau lagi obral, pasti sudah aku borong seabrek-abrek, he.. he..
On 2/9/09, James Liem <prim...@yahoo.com> wrote: > Subject: FW: [Fwd: DBS Vickers (Indo) Astra Agro Lestari: Still > expensive (FULLY VALUED; Rp12,100; AALI IJ; Price Target : Rp7,175 (Prev > Rp 3, 800))] > > > > Astra Agro Lestari (FULLY VALUED; Rp12,100; Bloomberg Code: AALI IJ) > Still expensive > Price Target : Rp7,175 (Prev Rp 3,800) > by: Ben Santoso +65 6398 7976 > and Indonesia Research Team +6221 3983 2668 > > Our recent visit to Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) indicated that its 2008 > net > profit might be slightly ahead of our forecast. AALI might also have to > consider external funding for capital expenditure because it expects > lower > cash levels this year. We raised FY09F and FY10F EPS by 47.9% and 14.8%, > respectively, after imputing weaker IDR rates. Consequently, our target > price is raised to Rp7,175, based on 10.8x FY09F EPS. Maintain Fully > Valued. > > 4Q08 net profit down q-o-q. Despite this, we estimate 4Q08 revenue from > CPO > and PK sales at Rp1.4tn, bringing full year revenue from these products > alone to Rp7.5tn. Including contribution from other divisions, FY08E > revenue could be slightly ahead of our expectations, as will net profit. > > Cash remains a concern. AALI expanded its planted area by over 22,000 > hectares last year. But it has not decided on its expansion plan for > this > year, pending further analysis of its cash flow situation. We are > retaining > our assumption of 25,000 ha expansion this year, but we now expect the > group to take on Rp500b new debt to fund its capex. > > EPS raised on weaker IDR. After imputing 6.0-14.9% weaker IDR rate for > FY09F and FY10F, we raised EPS by 47.9% and 14.9%, respectively. Hence, > our > target price is raised to Rp7,175, based on 10.8x FY09F PE (upgraded > from > 7.0x given AALI's large capitalization). > > (See attached file: AALI090209.pdf) > > > >
