RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM dan FENI III

Fri, 07 Jul 2006 01:23:34 -0700

Ingat dulu sewaktu Feni II terbakar? Perbaikan butuh waktu total 8 bulan,  rencana cuma 3 bulan. Harga saham tetap naik soalnya selama 2005 nickel naik 100%. Memperbaiki smelter nggak gampang, susah butuh cuaca kering. Masalah di feni III waktu konstruksi tahun 2005, cuaca hujan terus. Belum lagi operasional sampai titik maximum harus bertahap. Sebulan lalu kawan saya bilang, ada masalah soalnya tetep produksi feni III nggak bisa di tambah sesuai specs/jadwal, so there was something wrong. Ternyata memang konstruksinya jelek. Terbukti dipaksakan bocor.
 
Yg jelas pengumuman pak DEDI ADITYA, harus dianggap utk menenangkan pemegang saham, emang tugas dirut seperti itu. Walaupun keterangan beliau jangan dipercaya bulat2. Saya yakin Feni III harus tunggu setahun lagi. What an opportunnity loss! Direksi ANTM nggak bisa disalahkan (direksi ANTM termasuk yg jujur dan competen, jarang direksi BUMN punya kualitas seperti ini) , yg salah sudah pasti kontraktor Mitsui.
 
Sekarang Harga nickel sedang tinggi2nya sudah sentuh 11 USD/lb, target hanya 12rb MT.
Tapi jangan harap FENI III bakal cepat baik. Harga sekarang 4500 sudah wajar kalo asumsi nickel 7 USD/lb. EPS2006= cuma 10x. Kalo nickel jatuh? 

Aria Bela Nusa <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Betul, Pak Sudes – hati2 saja, tuh short-selling suatu saham yg sedang bagus2nya (T/A + F/A) à growth stock + co (in term of bottom-line = net income + growth) …
            Aria
-----Original Message-----
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Sudeswanto
Sent: 07 Juli 2006 9:23
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM dan FENI III
perubahan fundamental ANTM hanya bersifat TEMPORER
jangan terpancing dengan pernyataan bahwa pendapatan dan laba ANTM akan turun
tahun lalu, antm memproduksi sekitar 7500 feronikel
ekspektasi tahun ini sekitar 19.000 feronikel, tapi karena terjadi kebocoran, maka turun menjadi sekitar 13.000 s/d 16.000
pendapatan dan laba bersih ANTM di tahun 2006, TETAP naik bila dibandingkan tahun 2006, TETAPI dibawah dari ekspektasi semula
kalau dilihat dari segi teknikal, masih ada peluang untuk kembali terjadinya koreksi, support nya berapa? saya belum bisa jawab..the market is always right ^^
semoga membantu, and disclaimer ^^ hehehe
-----Original Message-----
From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]On Behalf Of up_trends
Sent: Thursday, July 06, 2006 7:33 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM dan FENI III
THx P Eka, yah saya dah cut dan short dulu neh. pusing juga nih.untung
kemarin sempat pt dikit di 4975an. kira kira fair value berapa ANTM
nih? thx

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]..>
wrote:
>
> ANTM , FENI III tutup karena nggak bisa penuhi target produksi yg
dijanjikan. Berita baru turun di koran, padahal sebenrnya bandar sudah
tahu sebulan lalu. Ada company visit bulan lalu.
> Di harga sekarang di 4500 dgn Shutdown total, PER2006= 10-11x.
Mahal bo, Short sell !
>
>
> up_trends <[EMAIL PROTECTED]..> wrote:
> Mbah Vs Bi rate cuts. menang mana neh?
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "up_trends" <up_trends@>
> wrote:
> >
> > wow BI cut rates lho....
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "up_trends" <up_trends@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > feeling saya sih gak.krn:
> > > 1 momentum IHSG yg negatif, apalagi mau digebuk ama Mbah
> > > 2.antm sudah naik 20%an
> > > 3.Vol turun ANTM hr ini lumayan gila. saya terpaksa cut loss dr
> > 4725,
> > > di 4650.
> > > 4. yg saya takuti feni III musti tutup 3 bulan. wong buka aja
> kata
> > P
> > > Eka masi gak menuhi target. apa lagi di tutup?
> > >
> > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Bonardo Paruntungan
> > > <lawlegalious@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > ANTM turun 5%.. gila... =D...
> > > > gmana kalu speculating buy... haha... besok sapa tau
> > > > naek... sejarah... sejarah....
> > > >
> > > > kalu ada saham dibuang banyak tanpa didukung FACTS
> > > > yang tepat.. ada yang "nampung" gede dibawah...
> > > > besok ANTM released berita ANTM did transcation with
> > > > bla... bla. atau apalah... akhirnya pelan dia naik..
> > > > tapi hari belakangan ANTM melejit kayak "MAKSA" masuk
> > > > zona 5000.. happened sih... kalu dasarnya ini..
> > > > maka kasusnya kayak KLBF - PJAA - BLTA...
> > > > turun lagi besok....
> > > >
> > > > entahlah... ehhe... sorry ngawur...
> > > >
> > > > cheers
> > > > heran gue.. ane kagak pernah nyicipin BUMN neh...
> > > > haha.
> > > > kesambet apaan gue yah...
> > > >
> > > > BONZ
> > > > (pertanyaan tambahan : saya kan tertarik neh mau jadi
> > > > account officer/ sales di sekuritas.. apakah saya
> > > > harus ujian dulu...??... ada info lowongan..)haha....
> > > > sorry =D
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- Siswa Rizali <pidie@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) sedang mengevaluasi
> > > > > rencana, 06/07/2006
> > > > > 08:51
> > > > > "..pabrik FeNi III mengalami kebocoran yang berasal
> > > > > dari metal tap
> > > > > hole pabrik yang terjadi pada 1 Juli 2006. Kejadian
> > > > > itu menyebabkan
> > > > > pabrik FeNi III harus ditutup guna perbaikan selama
> > > > > kurang lebih tiga
> > > > > bulan. "
> > > > >
> > > > > bingung aja.
> > > > >
> > > > > kalau kejadiannya tgl 1 juli, tgl 2-3 juli
> > > > > seharusnya sudah tahu
> > > > > kira2 akibatnya. kok tgl 4 antm naik tajam, dan tgl
> > > > > 5 bertahan?
> > > > >
> > > > > ada yg rekayasa buat jualan barang?
> > > > >
> > > > > baikan inco aja lah, target 23,000 masih berlaku kan
> > > > > meskipun
> > > > > produksi juga diperkirakan turun dikit.
> > > > >
> > > > > salam,
> > > > > rz
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "up_trends"
> > > > > <up_trends@>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ttg output antm bukannya P Eka dah bilang output
> > > > > emang gak kena
> > > > > > target?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Mr
> > > > > Tankers" <wellriches@>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > JAKARTA (XFN-ASIA) - State nickel and gold miner
> > > > > PT Aneka Tambang
> > > > > > (Antam)
> > > > > > > has reduced its output target for nickel
> > > > > contained in ferronickel
> > > > > > for this
> > > > > > > year to 13,000-16,000 tons from 19,000 tons
> > > > > because its new FeNi
> > > > > > III smelter
> > > > > > > has been temporarily shut down, the company
> > > > > said.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > A statement issued by Antam says the contractors
> > > > > building the new
> > > > > > smelter
> > > > > > > have reported a fault that requires them to shut
> > > > > it down for
> > > > > about
> > > > > > three
> > > > > > > months.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > FeNi III is being built by an unincorporated
> > > > > consortium of Mitsui
> > > > > &
> > > > > > Co Ltd
> > > > > > > and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd of Japan.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The statement quoted Antam president director
> > > > > Aditya Sumanagara
> > > > > as saying:
> > > > > > > "We are extremely disappointed by this
> > > > > development as we had been
> > > > > > operating
> > > > > > > FeNi III at capacity for 1-1/2 months and were
> > > > > expecting to begin
> > > > > > the final
> > > > > > > test and declare commercial operations at the
> > > > > beginning of July."
> > > > > > > In the first half, Antam produced 6,860 tons of
> > > > > nickel contained
> > > > > in
> > > > > > > ferronickel. It expects its other smelters, FeNi
> > > > > I and FeNi II,
> > > > > to produce about 5,000 tons in the second half.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The company said that when operating at
> > > > > capacity, FeNi III can
> > > > > > produce 1, 200 tons of nickel contained in
> > > > > ferronickel per month.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > "Antam will also attempt to out-source
> > > > > ferronickel production
> > > > > with other
> > > > > > > companies and to implement further measures to
> > > > > offset lost
> > > > > > revenue," the company said.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The 320 mln-usd FeNi III project comprises a new
> > > > > smelter and
> > > > > power plant and
> > > > > > > will more than double Antam's contained nickel
> > > > > in ferronickel
> > > > > > capacity from 11,000 tonnes per year to 25,000
> > > > > tonnes
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > __________________________________________________
> > > > Do You Yahoo!?
> > > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> > > > http://mail.yahoo.com
> > > >
> > >
> >
>

__._,_.___


SPONSORED LINKS
Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance
Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools

YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



__,_._,___

Kirim email ke