Sent: Mon 5/1/2006 3:56 PM
To: Daniel Wiloso; Surabaya; Pekalongan
Subject: PTBA - why we like the stock....
We remain positive on PTBA and strongly recommend to BUY this stock. We suggest the technical/chartist to provide the entry level since the share price has up by 61% during 2 months trading. Although the stock prone with profit taking, but we view that investor should use the opportunity to Buy On Weakness.
>From our conversation with PTBA in the company visit revealed that:
1. Price negotiation with PLN is expected to reach in 2Q06, meaning by the latest next month
2. Indicative new price with PLN : Rp350,000 - Rp380,000/ton from last year Rp272,000/ton
3. The 4x600 MW Banko Tengah power plant already in PPA process, expects commissioning in 2009, with 10-12 mn ton coal consumption per year supplied by PTBA
4. The NAV of 4x600 MW Banko Tengah project is around Rp800/share
5. Meanwhile, the Railway and Canal project is still on schedule, both in Feasibility study, expect next year to sign the Joint Venture agreement and expect start commision in 2010 with 40 mn ton coal capacity, supplied by PTBA
6. If all project realized, coal capacity will boost to 60 mn ton (from current 10 mn ton) in 2010, potential NAV from new project worth around Rp4500/share.
7. The 2Q06 result is expected to be higher thanks to new price negotiation from PLN that will recognized in January 2006
8. Company expects total revenue of around Rp3.5-Rp3.6 tr or 20% growth in FY06, whilst net profit is expected to grow by 10-11% YoY
9. AGM and AEGM will be held on 10 May 2006, with deviden payment as one of the agenda
10. Expect to distribute deviden of Rp106/share, offers yield of 3.5%
11. Recommend to BUY with middle term target price of Rp3,500-Rp3,800/share
12. With its bright outlook, we expect PTBA will be the second PGAS in the long run :-)
________________________________
From: Christine Salim
Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2006 11:52 AM
To: Kelvin Long; Equity; All Staff at MI 25th Floor
Cc: Research
Subject: RE: PTBA- potensial tambahan NAV hingga Rp4500/saham
At Rp3000 PTBA P/E seems high, 10.8x in 2006 and 10.4x in 2007.
But the project (PLTU Banko Tengah) will start soon and will double the production in 2010.
Moreover, if the transportation project (canal and railway) materialize the production will up by 40mn ton in 2010, hence total production PTBA will increase to 60 mn ton (from current 10mn ton).
This is Long Term Investment.. for those who can keep long, should buy this stock...
________________________________
From: Kelvin Long
Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2006 11:28 AM
To: Christine Salim; Equity; All Staff at MI 25th Floor
Cc: Research
Subject: RE: PTBA- potensial tambahan NAV hingga Rp4500/saham
What is the PE for 06 and 07?
________________________________
From: Christine Salim
Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2006 11:15 AM
To: Equity; All Staff at MI 25th Floor
Cc: Research
Subject: PTBA- potensial tambahan NAV hingga Rp4500/saham
PTBA sudah melewati target harga kami dan saat ini kami sedang melakukan upgrade. Namun beberapa point penting yang harus diperhatikan adalah PTBA memiliki long term future yang sangat bagus dengan potensi kenaikan pendapatan hingga 6 kali lipat di tahun 2010. Kami melihat bahwa pasar mulai memfaktorkan proyek2 yang akan dilakukan PTBA.
* Kerjasama Dengan Investor China. PTBA telah menandatangani sejumlah perjanjian dengan beberapa investor dari China untuk membangun 3 proyek besarnya sebagai usaha untuk merealisasikan ekspansi usahanya. Adapun proyek tersebut antara lain:
1. Pembangunan PLTU Mulut Tambang Banko Tengah (4x600 MW) di Tanjung Enim, bekerjasama dengan China Juadian Corporation (CHD), PLN, PT Indika Inti Energi serta melibatkan BUMD. Kepemilikan PTBA adalah 28% dimana total investasi sebesar US$2.1 miliar akan didanai oleh China Development Bank dan Chinese Exim Bank. Proyek ini akan mulai operasi tahun 2010.
2. Pembangunan Jalur Baru Kereta Api dari Tanjung Enim (Sumsel) ke Tarahan (Lampung) bekerjasama dengan China Railway Engineering Corp dan PT Transpacific Securindo. Total investasi sebesar US$650 juta akan didanai oleh beberapa bank komersial di China. Proyek ini akan mulai operasi tahun 2010.
3. Pembangunan Sistem Angkutan Terpadu (kereta api dan kanal) dari Tanjung Enim ke Tanjung Api-Api dan Selat Bangka bekerjasama dengan Konsorsium China (CITIC group dan China Coal), China Development Bank dan Konsorsium Indonesia. Total investasi sebesar US$490 juta akan didanai oleh China Development Bank dan direncanakan mulai operasi tahun 2010.
Kesemua proyek tersebut diatas akan meningkatkan produksi PTBA sebesar 50 juta ton menjadi 60 juta ton pada tahun 2010. Kami memproyeksikan pendapatan PTBA akan tumbuh signifikan hingga 6 kali lipat dari pendapatan FY05 sebesar Rp3,141 miliar. Potensi tambahan/kenaikan NAV diperkirakan sekitar Rp4,500/saham dari proyek diatas. (liat report kami 27 September 2005)
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