apa pun beritanya, ptba tetap tenang. benar2 nih saham menguji kesabaran. rz
===. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news? pid=10000081&sid=aeSSauEu4hfU&refer=australia Commodity Strategists: Coal Prices May Beat Forecasts, ANZ Says April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Asian contract prices for power- station coal may outpace forecasts because of colder weather in North Asia and Europe and disruptions to Indonesian exports, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said. Japanese utilities such as Tokyo Electric Power Co. may agree to pay as much as $47 a metric ton in the year that started April 1, up from $42 forecast in December, said Andrew Harrington, industry analyst at Australia's third-largest lender. Prices won't fall as much as predicted from last year's record of $53, he said. Citigroup Inc. expects $50 this year. Talks on annual prices in Asia have been delayed into the new Japanese business year as buyers resist demands by producers to renew contracts at last year's record price. Meantime, the price of coal sold for immediate delivery by producers in Australia such as Xstrata Plc and BHP Billiton has risen 46 percent since November, partly because of colder weather in Japan. ``Talking with some of the participants, the outlook seems fairly positive for prices,'' Harrington, 32, said in an interview on March 30. ``Generally, the contract price tends to be settled a couple of dollars discount to the spot price.'' The weekly globalCOAL NEWC Index of spot thermal coal prices for immediate delivery from Australia's Newcastle, the world's biggest coal-export harbor, rose 2.5 percent last week to $52.58, its highest since Jan. 7, 2005. The monthly Newcastle index rose to $50.80, its highest since July. Indonesia last year overtook Australia as the world's biggest exporter of coal used in power plants. Goldman, UBS Melbourne-based Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty is forecasting contract prices may be settled at $48 a ton this year, while UBS AG is forecasting $46 a ton. National Australia Bank Ltd. will raise its forecast of $42 later this month, probably to the high $40s, said Gerard Burg, a minerals and energy economist at the Melbourne-based bank. Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata in November agreed to sell coal to Taiwan Power Co. in 2006 at about $40 a ton, Citigroup said in a Nov. 10 report. At that time, exporters were seeking $45, the securities firm said, adding that the settlement may drag down other contract prices. In a March 31 report, Citigroup said prices may fall $3 this year. ``Buyers seeking cargoes for May-June delivery will almost certainly be paying over $50 a ton'' excluding freight and insurance, Goldman said. ``The latest run-up in spot prices certainly strengthens the miners' position in their forthcoming contract negotiations with Japanese power utilities.'' Chinese Exports Chinese thermal coal exports fell 38 percent in January from a year earlier, to 3.5 million tons, Goldman Sachs JBWere said in a March 17 report. Heavy rain has reduced productivity at Indonesian mines, while Australian coal shipments fell in February for the second straight month, to 17.16 million tons, 5.2 percent lower than February last year, it said. Producers of Australian thermal coal may take until after April to reach an agreement with their Japanese customers on prices this year, the Tex Report said March 27, without citing anyone. Japanese power producers are still aiming for a contract price in the $40-$45 a ton range, even as spot prices have increased past $50 a ton, it said. Indonesian miners may increase exports of coal by 5 percent this year, the slowest pace in five years, curbing overseas sales to meet domestic demand, T. Soedjoko, executive director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association, said in January. Exports jumped 18 percent in 2005. Indonesia ``Indonesian exports have really taken a hit, and that's factors such as the weather and these sort of things,'' Burg said April 4. ``A bit stronger demand too from Europe has tended to increase spot prices, not just for Newcastle, but for more dedicated European suppliers such as South Africa.'' Coal delivered within three months from Richards Bay, the world's second-biggest coal export harbor, increased 65 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $58 a metric ton last week, the globalCOAL RB Index showed, the highest since the week ended Nov. 1, 2004. The globalCOAL ARA index for prices in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp was $66.04 last week. AME Mineral Economics Pty, a Sydney-based minerals consulting firm, is forecasting Asian contract prices of at least $50 this year, up from a previous forecast of about $45, said Graham Wailes, a coal analyst. Supply problems in Indonesia, Australia, South Africa and China, together with a cold winter in northern Asia and increased U.S. imports have all contributed to the higher forecast, he said. ``Short-term fundamentals have changed into creating what I'd call a supply deficit,'' Wailes said. ``If I was an exporter I could understand why they're rumored to have been putting a roll-over on the table as a long-term contract price. The market has changed a hell of a lot from where it was in November, when spot prices were down sub-$40.'' Some Asian settlements for 2006 contract prices were last month ``close to happening but didn't stick around the mid-$40s mark,'' ANZ Bank's Harrington said. ``Maybe that will seem more realistic again'' given the change in the market, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at [EMAIL PROTECTED] Last Updated: April 5, 2006 18:35 EDT ------------------------ Yahoo! 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