Saya pernah baca recent study by Risk Metrics of 89,000 stock reports issued at wall street's largest firm since Sept 98. Isinya kurang lebih begini "Study revealed that investors would have done better by ignoring stock analysts' recommendations and buying those stocks that were least favored. Stock rated "Hold" or "Sell" outperformed those with "strong buy" recommendations. In other words, the best strategy was to do the opposite of what the highly paid stock gurus suggested" Saya bukan underestimate analyst, tp saya pernah riset dgn "back track" omongan beberapa analist2 celebrities (ngutip istilah embah)....hasilnya ternyata sama dgn diatas. Saya juga pernah construct beberapa dummy portfolios 1) "upgraded by analyst" portfolio. 2) "low P/E, low PBV" portfolios.........bagus if holding period nya > 1 thn 3) "Macro investing" portfolio which rotate sectors in economic cycle. 4) "Value" portfolio yg didalamnya harus pass the 3 stock screens. Riset saya analisa thn 2003-2005 5) "Water schloss" portfolio. 6) "Behavioural finance" portfolios
Hasilnya ?......portfolio no 1 Always underperformed porfolio lainnya it even can't beat IHSG ----- Original Message ----- --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Hendra Julius" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb: > Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion? > > Overvalued, downgrade to SELL > We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of > Rp2,700 > because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. High > ferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high > expectations on > oil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel > switching > program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the > bottom > line is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only > 15-20% of total > revenues. > Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next year > We have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel > Oil) assumptions in > FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertaminaâs higher-than-expected industrial > selling prices. This > has led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to > US$3.5/lb. Our new > forecasts are in line with the managementâs expectations of US$3.5-3.7/lb > cash costs in FY06. > Upgrading gold price assumptions > The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven > mainly by strong US > economic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already > exceeded the 18-year > highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by > 17% and 19%, > respectively. > All lead to changes in forecasts > We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% > respectively mainly driven by > changes in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign > exchange rates. On the > operational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% > and 45% respectively. > Why do we rate the stock as a SELL? > The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly > triggered in our view by > expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is > positive for ANTM, we donât think > that it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTMâs > relatively small portion of > gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues. > > Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F > Revenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237 > EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407 > EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8) > Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570 > Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653 > EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299 > EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7) > Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342 > Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4) > BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137 > DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105 > Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7) > PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4 > Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9 > PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 > Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1 > EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8 > > ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though: > a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices â" > Fuel costs represent > a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and > 47% next year. > Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs > further and > squeeze margins. > b. Balance sheet under pressure â" ANTMâs balance sheet is healthy in our > view, and we > expect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the > managementâs plans to > expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance > sheet will come > under pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects. > c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine â" We are > concerned that > higher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold > mine. Another > concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years. > The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which > therefore will lead to > EPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the > market in our view. > FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly > driven by the > higher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel > price. Under our > estimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings > yield of only > 7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock > with FY06-end > target price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there wonât be additional > nickel supply is > a positive factor for ANTM. > > > Tks > HJ > > -- > Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/m2/ > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
