Dear NMuser

I am trying to analyze time to repeated event data using NONMEM.
The response were obtained till 24 hours after drug administration.
Inhibitory Emax model was implemented.
I am getting unreasonable parameter estimates which is far beyond what data
say.
If some body can point out what i am doing wrong, it would be very helpful.
Thank you in advance.

Hyewon


Data set (# of observations =62, # of patients=50 )
C        ID        TIME         CS         MDV        AUC
.          101     0                .            1                1.111
.          101     0.05           0            0               1.111
.          101     2               0            0                1.111
.          102     0                .            1                 0
.          102     24             1            0                0
.          103     0                .            1                0.999
.          103     0.75          .             0                0.999
....

Model File
$PROB RUN# 101
$INPUT C ID TIME CS MDV AUC
;CS:0=having event,1=censored
$DATA .data.csv IGNORE=C
$SUBROUTINE ADVAN=6 TOL=6
$MODEL
COMP=(HAZARD)
$PK
   LAMD=THETA(1)*EXP(ETA(1))    ;scale factor
   ALPH=THETA(2)                             ;shape factor

   EC=THETA(3)                                  ;AUC when effect is half of
its max
   EFF=1-AUC/(EC+AUC)                 ;drug effect

$DES
  DEL=1E-6
  DADT(1)=LAMD*ALPH*(TIME+DEL)**(ALPH-1)*EXP(-LAMD*(TIME+DEL)**ALPH)*EFF

$ERROR
  DEL2=1E-6
  IF(NEWIND.NE.2) OLDCHZ=0
  CHZ=A(1)-OLDCHZ
  OLDCHZ=A(1)
  SUR=EXP(-CHZ)
  HAZNOW=LAMD*ALPH*(TIME+DEL2)**(ALPH-1)*EXP(-LAMD*(TIME+DEL2)**ALPH)*EFF

  IF(CS.EQ.1) Y=SUR                        ;survival prob of censored
  IF(CS.EQ.0) Y=SUR*HAZNOW         ;pdf of event

$THETA
  (0,10)         ;[scale factor]
  (0,1.0)        ;[shaph factor]
  (0,0.01)      ;[AUC at half of Emax]

$OMEGA
  0.01     ;[p] omega(1,1)

$EST METHOD=COND LIKE LAPLACIAN PRINT=5 SIG=3 MAX=9999 MSFO=101.msf

$COV PRINT=E

$TABLE ID TIME SUR AUC ONEHEADER NOPRINT FILE=101.tab

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