Generative AI is changing how software is produced and used. In vibe coding, an AI agent builds software by selecting and assembling open-source software (OSS), often without users directly reading documentation, reporting bugs, or otherwise engaging with maintainers. We study the equilibrium effects of vibe coding on the OSS ecosystem. We develop a model with endogenous entry and heterogeneous project quality in which OSS is a scalable input into producing more software. Users choose whether to use OSS directly or through vibe coding. Vibe coding raises productivity by lowering the cost of using and building on existing code, but it also weakens the user engagement through which many maintainers earn returns. When OSS is monetized only through direct user engagement, greater adoption of vibe coding lowers entry and sharing, reduces the availability and quality of OSS, and reduces welfare despite higher productivity. Sustaining OSS at its current scale under widespread vibe coding requires major changes in how maintainers are paid.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.15494 Analisi interessante che propone un modello economico dell'opensource e ne deriva alcune previsioni verificabili nel medio periodo. Un aspetto che non considera (perché cibernetico, non economico) è la facilità con cui sarà possibile introdurre vulnerabilità nel software prodotto con questi strumenti, sia open source, sia quello proprietario che lo utilizza. Il costo degli attacchi alla supply chain si sta riducendo mentre il loro impatto e la difficoltà di identificarli cresce. Nei prossimi anni ci sarà da divertirsi... :-) Giacomo
