On Aug 15, 2013, at 00:19 , Sean Donelan <s...@donelan.com> wrote:
> On Wed, 14 Aug 2013, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote:

>> It is actually even harder than the above illustrates. Most people define 
>> "Mbps on the Internet" as inter-AS bits. But then what about Akamai AANP 
>> nodes, Google GGC nodes, Netflix Open Connect nodes, etc.? They are all 
>> inside the AS. Given that Akamai claims to be 20% of all broadband traffic, 
>> Google is on the same order, and NF claims to be 30% of US peak-evening 
>> traffic, it seems like it would be foolish to ignore this traffic.
>> 
>> I could go on, but you get the point. Definitions are a bitch.
> 
> Some of that may help explain why the Internet traffic estimates seem to be 
> too high or too low since about 2007. The primary data sources for
> the Internet traffic estimates seem to be mostly Internet backbones and 
> Internet exchange points.
> 
> I hadn't been paying attention until I looked at a bunch of companies' 
> investor filings this week because the size of the Internet was in the news.  
> If you add up the percentages that companies are telling investors and policy 
> makers, you end up with more than 100%. Most of the companies' investor 
> reports don't explain % of what.  But the few that
> do, end up pointing back to the same traffic forecast reports.  That doesn't 
> even get to the "long tail" of small providers that don't report anything.
> 
> Either there is a lot of traffic missing, or market concentration is much 
> greater than assumed.

I am not at all surprised the sum of percentages is > 100.

User on Joe's-DSL-and-Bait store sends a packet up through 
Mary's-backbone-and-coffee shop to Bill's-other-transit-and-sandwich cart which 
finally lands on Comcast. (Didn't see that coming, did you? :)

All four networks are going to claim that packet, but a true accounting of 
"petabytes downloaded per day" will only count it once.

-- 
TTFN,
patrick

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