On 4/24/13 1:55 AM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
On Wed, 24 Apr 2013, Geoff Huston wrote:
However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high
probability on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year.
I also have to qualify that by noting that while I think that a
runout of the remaining 40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable,
its by no means impossible. If we saw a re-run of the address
consumption rates that ARIN experienced in 2010, then it's not
outside the bounds of plausibility that ARIN will be handing out its
last address later this year.
I also find it a bit strange that the runout in APNIC and RIPE was
very different. APNIC address allocation rate accelerated at the end,
whereas RIPE exhaustion date kept creeping forward in time instead of
closer in time, giving me the impression that there wasn't any panic
there.
apnic allocation reserved the final /8 for /22 maximal allocations.
Couple that with some qualifying very large assignments towards the end
of stage two e.g between feb 1 and april 14 2011 7 provider assignments
combined soaked up more than 2 /8s and you get rapid runout towards the
endgame.
Has anyone done any detailed analysis of the last year of allocation
behaviour for each of these regions, trying to understand the
difference in behaviour? I'd be very interested in this.
My belief (not well founded) is that ARIN runout will look more like
RIPE region than APNIC...
