On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:41 PM, Matthew Petach wrote: > On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <o...@delong.com> wrote: >> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote: > ... >>> IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for >>> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only >>> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64). >> >> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet >> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about >> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage >> of the future network. >> >> Owen > > Hm. With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of > doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people > on the internet? > Ah, but, today, we don't really have 1B people on the internet, we have about 10,000,000 people on the internet and about 990,000,000 people behind NAT boxes, so, in 7 cycles of doubling we'll be at 1,280,000,000 people on the internet. ;-)
> I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue > at that pace. > Likely, but, I couldn't resist pointing out the reality above anyway. Even without the growth curves continuing, the IPv4 internet will become a relatively small fraction of the total internet in about 15 years. Owen
