You've got to get your backbone and transit enabled instrumented and stable before you put customers on it... that's a key in transitioning from an experiemental toy to something that you can actually use.
The current V6 deployement that I'm working on mirrors the previous 4 almost exactly in that regard. the v6 workshop at nanog 41 pretty much echoed that observation. joel On May 15, 2011, at 1:29 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote: > > http://searchtelecom.techtarget.com/news/2240035722/Backbone-operators-see-IPv6-connectivity-demand-up-but-little-traffic > > Backbone operators see IPv6 connectivity demand up, but little traffic > > Internet backbone and wholesale carriers are anecdotally reporting a rapid > rise in demand from their service provider customers for IPv6 connectivity—an > apparent prelude to the full-scale arrival of the IPv6 Internet as World IPv6 > Day looms on the horizon. > > We've seen a tremendous increase in IPv6 traffic. Granted, though, it still > comes nowhere near our traffic on v4. > > Reid Fishler, director, Hurricane Electric > > Backbone operators, however, acknowledge that the amount of IPv6 traffic > still pales in comparison to that of its predecessor, IPv4, and that it's > still too early to tell how quickly it will grow. > > Hurricane Electric, which claims to operate the world's largest IPv6-native > Internet backbone, has established three dual-stack (both IPv4 and IPv6) > points of presence (POPs) at carrier hotels since March. Citing growing > demand from operators for European peering points with IPv6 Internet > connectivity, the wholesale provider connected its backbone to the Equinix > Paris Exchange last week. > > When Hurricane Electric offered native dual-stack services to carriers two > years ago, few accepted them, according to Reid Fishler, director of carrier > sales and purchasing at Hurricane Electric. Customers were confused or > disinterested, but now "the vast majority" of service providers that are > buying wholesale access at these Internet peering points are opting for > dual-stack—and in rare cases, IPv6-only connections, he said. > > "We've seen a tremendous increase in IPv6 traffic. Granted, though, it still > comes nowhere near our traffic on v4," Fishler said. "But look at any one of > these [Internet] exchange fabrics and compare v6 traffic to v4 traffic. Up > until a year ago, you couldn't even rate [the amount of IPv6 traffic], and > now you're starting to see it [on the Internet], and you definitely see a lot > of the traffic coming in from China and Asia as v6 traffic now." > > Hurricane Electric also established dual-stack POPs in Internet exchange > point Telehouse Paris Voltaire and VegasNAP in Las Vegas in March. Late last > year, demand for IPv6 Internet connectivity prompted Hurricane Electric's POP > expansions into peering points Comfluent, in Denver; Equinix Singapore > Exchange; and the Northwest Access Exchange in Portland, Ore. More on IPv6 > connectivity > > Get a telecom network architect's view on how to convert IPv4 to IPv6. > > Learn why your telecom IPv6 transition plan must include more than upgrading > your routers. > > Find out how to make the IPv4 to IPv6 transition work. > > If you can get your kids to eat their veggies, you can sell enterprises on > IPv6 migration plans. > > Shawn Morris, manager of IP development at NTT America, said IPv6 Internet > traffic is still "a tiny fraction" of all Internet traffic, but NTT America > has seen a steady increase of demand for and questions about IPv6 > connectivity from its carrier customers over the past few years. A large > portion of the demand is coming from service providers in Latin America, > which have been slower to adopt IPv6 than carriers in other regions, Morris > said. > > Demand for dual-stack peering at public Internet exchanges and at private > peering points has also increased, said Morris, who oversees network > architecture, hardware and software. > > "I wouldn't say it's at parity with IPv6, but it's definitely trending in > that direction," he said. "That's a big change. In ‘03 and ‘04, we went > native [with IPv6 on our backbone] and were ready to peer with any of our > peers, but it took a good six to seven years before we really saw an increase > in demand." > > More requests for IPv6 connectivity, but traffic barely materializing > > NTT America could not provide any data regarding IPv6 Internet traffic > levels. But in its search for a new network monitoring platform, one of its > requirements was more granular visibility into levels of IPv4 and IPv6 > traffic, Morris said. > > "We don't have any hard statistics ... but we definitely keep seeing more > customers adding v6 onto their connections and an increase in the v6 routing > table," he said. "But we're also expecting, to be honest, quite a bit of > growth in the IPv4 routing table as people start to split up the address > space in the run-out. So, we're planning for a large amount of growth in both > tables." > > Order requests for IPv6 connectivity have doubled every year for the past > three years at Global Crossing, according to Anthony Christie, the backbone > operator's chief technical and information officer. But that hasn't > translated yet into any significant amount of IPv6 Internet traffic on Global > Crossing's network, he said. > > "The traffic that we're seeing would need to increase 100 times the current > levels in order for it to be a meaningful percentage in total traffic," > Christie said. "The content, addresses and infrastructure associated with > [IPv4] is not yet exhausted, so you wouldn't necessarily expect a switch to > flick because someone has decided to order a v6 port on our network." > > The American Registry of Internet Numbers (ARIN)—the Regional Internet > Registry (RIR) for the United States, Canada and much of the Caribbean—has > seen similar rates of growth in requests for IPv6 address space blocs, > according to John Curran, president and CEO of ARIN. In 2008, ARIN received > 250 requests for IPv6 address blocs from ISPs and hosting providers; in 2009, > that rose to just above 400. Last year, ARIN received 700 requests. Within > the first quarter of 2011, it has received 500 requests for IPv6 address > blocs and expects that to total 1,500 by the end of the year, Curran said. > > "We've seen, for the last three years, the requests for IPv6 address space > double," Curran said. "But that may not result in traffic." > > Internet backbone provider Level 3 Communications, which recently announced > its intention to buy Global Crossing, has seen similar IPv6 connectivity and > traffic trends. > > "Level 3 has witnessed growth in the number of IPv6 routes that are being > advertised, but IPv6 routes still account for a very small portion of all > Internet routes," said Mark Taylor, vice president of content and media at > Level 3. "Likewise, even as IPv6 Internet traffic is on the rise, it is still > small relative to the growth in address announcements." > > What will spur growth of the IPv6 Internet? > > Backbone operators don't doubt that the IPv6 Internet will grow—but how > rapidly or under what conditions is anyone's guess. > > Hurricane Electric's Fishler said he expects rapid growth will be spurred by > consumer demand for a "killer application" that only functions on the IPv6 > Internet. > > "If some large Internet-addressable service ... comes out and it needs to > have 10,000 servers or whatever it needs, that next thing is going to > [require] v6," he said. "That next product, whatever it'll be, will be IPv6 > primarily and IPv4 secondarily ... and that's when we're going to see IPv6 > take off, and that's when customers and service providers are going to be > taken aback [if they can't] do it natively." > > Morris, of NTT America, didn't rule out the IPv6 killer app theory but > predicted more conservative, steady growth of the IPv6 Internet. > > "We're going to see a more gradual increase in IPv6 traffic as time goes on, > unless something comes along that's a killer app that's only available on > IPv6," he said. "I honestly don't know what that would be ... but something > like that might spurn a really quick uptake in IPv6. But what I think we're > going to see is more and more organic growth." >
