On Jan 25, 2011, at 2:32 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote: > On Tue, 25 Jan 2011 14:21:12 PST, Leo Bicknell said: > >> If you were allocating individual /48's, perhaps. But see, I'm a >> cable company, and I want a /48 per customer, and I have a couple >> of hundred thousand per pop, so I need a /30 per pop. Oh, and I >> have a few hundred pops, and I need to be able to aggreate regionally, >> so I need a /24. >> >> By my calculations I just used 16M /48's and I did it in about 60 >> seconds to write a paragraph. That's about 279,620 per second, so >> I'm well above your rate. > > Fine. You got ARIN or somebody to allocate your *first* /24 in under a > minute. > Now how long will it take you to actually *deploy* that many destinations? And > where do you plan to get your customers for the next 4 or 5 /24's, and how > long > will *those* deploys take? > > Face it Leo, you can't *sustain* that growth rate. > >> building in a lot of aggregation. Remember the very first IPv6 >> addressing proposals had a fully structured address space and only >> 4096 ISP's at the top of the chain! > > How many Tier-1's are there now, even if you include all the wannabes? > And how long would it take at current growth rates of Tier-1 status to run > out the *other* 4,087 entries?
RIRs allocate to lots of non-Tier-1 organizations, so, that count is pretty meaningless no matter what definition of "tier 1" you decide to use. I suspect that there are probably somewhere between 30,000 and 120,000 ISPs world wide that are likely to end up with a /32 or shorter prefix. Owen
