On Nov 29, 2010, at 11:17 PM, William Herrin wrote:

> And doesn't Moore's Law mean that 18 months from now
> it should cost half as much?

Maybe for the parts that are electrical, but for the parts that are optical, 
they may have a longer span.  Also, not everyone swaps out those electrical 
parts every 18 months, business life-cycles typically dictate years.  You don't 
replace your car stereo every 18 months (or maybe YOU do, but we're talking 
about the average consumer)...

The issue here is cost of infrastructure.  The last mile generally is more 
valuable than the long-distance part.  Everyone can build a nationwide network 
for a nominal amount of money.  All the carriers can provide circuits at the 
same IXPs where you can public/private peer.  The question does become, who is 
in those smaller and mid-markets.  Not everyone is going to build fiber in 
Akron, Eugene, nor Madison.  It gets even more interesting if you look at what 
happened with Fairpoint in the northeast IMHO.  Verizon realized they would not 
make money there and sold it off.  The promises and costs consumed them and 
forced bankruptcy.

I'm not saying that will happen to Comcast, but it may cause them to divest the 
unprofitable parts as well, leaving some parts of the country worse-off than we 
would be today.

- Jared

(these are my personal opinions, and not those of any employers current, past 
nor future)

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