On Nov 29, 2010, at 11:17 PM, William Herrin wrote: > And doesn't Moore's Law mean that 18 months from now > it should cost half as much?
Maybe for the parts that are electrical, but for the parts that are optical, they may have a longer span. Also, not everyone swaps out those electrical parts every 18 months, business life-cycles typically dictate years. You don't replace your car stereo every 18 months (or maybe YOU do, but we're talking about the average consumer)... The issue here is cost of infrastructure. The last mile generally is more valuable than the long-distance part. Everyone can build a nationwide network for a nominal amount of money. All the carriers can provide circuits at the same IXPs where you can public/private peer. The question does become, who is in those smaller and mid-markets. Not everyone is going to build fiber in Akron, Eugene, nor Madison. It gets even more interesting if you look at what happened with Fairpoint in the northeast IMHO. Verizon realized they would not make money there and sold it off. The promises and costs consumed them and forced bankruptcy. I'm not saying that will happen to Comcast, but it may cause them to divest the unprofitable parts as well, leaving some parts of the country worse-off than we would be today. - Jared (these are my personal opinions, and not those of any employers current, past nor future)
