On Mar 23, 2010, at 10:40 AM, Christopher Morrow wrote: > On Tue, Mar 23, 2010 at 10:27 AM, Owen DeLong <o...@delong.com> wrote: > >> I think that the additive nature of the IPv6/IPv4 routing tables will be the >> driving factor for deprecation of IPv4 pretty quickly once IPv6 starts to >> reach critical mass. The problem is that we are so early on the IPv6 >> adoption curve right now that nobody believes IPv6 will become >> ubiquitous fast enough to be relevant. > > it seems to me that we'll have widespread ipv4 for +10 years at least, > potentially there will be enough ipv4 alive in 20 years to still > consider it 'widespread'. I also think we'll see more v4 routes > (longer prefixes) show up in the first 10yrs, before it gets better :( > I think the pressure to start deprecating IPv4 will start in approximately 11-12 years...
Now = T0 T+3 years -- IPv4 runs out - Completely, not just IANA or RIRs, but, ISPs, too. T+8 years -- IPv6 nears ubiquity at least on the public internet T+11 years -- Economic pressures begin to drive the deprecation of IPv4. > I could be wrong, I hope I am, but... > >> I think that IPv6 deployment is already showing signs of acceleration. >> I think that it will lurch forward suddenly shortly after (~6-12 months) >> IPv4 finally hits the runout wall in a couple of years. > > I agree that v6 deployments seem to be getting > better/faster/stronger... I think that's good news, but we'll still be > paying the v4 piper for a while. > Yep. I completely agree. Owen
