On Thu, May 11, 2023 at 4:25 AM Vasilenko Eduard <vasilenko.edu...@huawei.com> wrote: > > I did investigate traffic for every Carrier while dealing with it as a > consultant (repeated many dozens of times). > > I have seen over a decade how traffic growth dropped year-over-year (from 60% > to 25% in 2019 when I dropped this activity in 2020 – covid blocked travel).
There was a covid spike, but the trendline appeared to be down to 5% projected this year in a british study for fixed residential that I cannot find right now. > Sometimes I talk to old connections and they confirm that it is even less now. > > In rear cases, It is typically possible to find this information on the > public Internet (I remember the case when Google disclosed traffic for > Pakistan at the conference with the explanation that 30% is attributed to new > subscribers, and an additional +30% is to more heavy content per subscriber). > > But mostly, it was confidential information from a discussion with Carriers – > they all know very well their traffic growth. > > In general, traffic stat is pretty confidential. I did not have the > motivation to aggregate it. > > > > Sandvine is not representative of global traffic because DPI is installed > mostly for Mobiles. But Mobile subscriber is 10x less than fixed on traffic – > it is not the biggest source. Moreover, Mobiles would look better growing > because the limiting factor was on technology (5G proposed more than 4G, 4G > proposed much more than 3G) – it would probably would less disruptive in the > future. > > Fixed Carriers do not pay DPI premiums. And rarely share their traffic > publicly. Sandvine could not see it. > > > > VNI is claiming so many things. Please show where exactly they show traffic > growth (I am not interested in prediction speculations). Is it possible to > understand CAGR for the 5 last years? Is it declining or growing? (traffic > itself is for sure still growing) > > > > Of course, the disruption could come at any year and add a new S-curve > (Metaverse?). But disruption is by definition not predictable. > > > > PS: Everything above and below in this thread is just my personal opinion. > > > > Eduard > > From: Etienne-Victor Depasquale [mailto:ed...@ieee.org] > Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2023 12:48 PM > To: Vasilenko Eduard <vasilenko.edu...@huawei.com> > Cc: Dave Taht <dave.t...@gmail.com>; Phil Bedard <bedard.p...@gmail.com>; > NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> > Subject: Re: Routed optical networks > > > > Eduard, academics cite the VNI (and the Sandvine Global reports). > > > > Do you know of alternative sources that show traffic growth data you're more > comfortable with? > > > > Cheers, > > > > Etienne > > > > On Thu, May 11, 2023 at 9:34 AM Vasilenko Eduard > <vasilenko.edu...@huawei.com> wrote: > > But it is speculation, not a trend yet. > > I remember 10y ago every presentation started from the claim that 100B of IoT > would drive XXX traffic. It did not happen. > > Now we see presentations that AI would be talking to AI that generates YYYY > traffic. > > Maybe some technology would push traffic next S-curve, maybe not. It is still > speculation. > > > > The traffic growth was stimulated (despite all VNIs) by 1) new subscribers, > 2) video quality for subscribers. Nothing else yet. > > It is almost finished for both trends. We are close to the plateau of these > S-curves. > > For some years (2013-2020) I was carefully looking at numbers for many > countries: it was always possible to split CAGR for these 2 components. The > video part was extremely consistent between countries. The subscriber part > was 100% proportional to subscriber CAGR. > > Everything else up to now was “marketing” to say it mildly. > > > > Reminder: nothing in nature could grow indefinitely. The limit always exists. > It is only a question of when. > > > > PS: Of course, marketing people could draw you any traffic growth – it > depends just on the marketing budget. > > > > Eduard > > From: Dave Taht [mailto:dave.t...@gmail.com] > Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2023 11:41 PM > To: Vasilenko Eduard <vasilenko.edu...@huawei.com> > Cc: Phil Bedard <bedard.p...@gmail.com>; Etienne-Victor Depasquale > <ed...@ieee.org>; NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> > Subject: Re: Routed optical networks > > > > Up until this moment I was feeling that my take on the decline of traffic > growth was somewhat isolated, in that I have long felt that we are nearing > the top of the S curve of the data we humans can create and consume. About > the only source of future traffic growth I can think of comes from getting > more humans online, and that is a mere another doubling. > > > > On the other hand, predictions such as 640k should be enough for everyone did > not pan out. > > > > On the gripping hand, there has been an explosion of LLM stuff of late, with > enormous models being widely distributed in just the past month: > > > > https://lwn.net/Articles/930939/ > > > > Could the AIs takeoff lead to a resumption of traffic growth? I still don´t > think so... > > > > > > On Thu, May 4, 2023 at 10:59 PM Vasilenko Eduard via NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> > wrote: > > Disclaimer: Metaverse has not changed Metro traffic yet. Then … > > > > I am puzzled when people talk about 400GE and Tbps in the Mero context. > > For historical reasons, Metro is still about 2*2*10GE (one “2” for > redundancy, another “2” for capacity) in the majority of cases worldwide. > > How many BRASes serve more than 40000/1.5=27k users in the busy hour? > > It means that 50GE is the best interface now for the majority of cases. > 2*50GE=100Gbps is good room for growth. > > Of course, exceptions could be. I know BRAS that handles 86k subscribers (do > not recommend anybody to push the limits – it was so painful). > > > > We have just 2 eyes and look at video content about 22h per week (on > average). Our eyes do not permit us to see resolution better than particular > for chosen distance (4k for typical TV, HD for smartphones, and so on). Color > depth 10bits is enough for the majority, 12bits is sure enough for everybody. > 120 frames/sec is enough for everybody. It would never change – it is our > genetics. > > Fortunately for Carriers, the traffic has a limit. You have probably seen > that every year traffic growth % is decreasing. The Internet is stabilizing > and approaching the plateau. > > How much growth is still awaiting us? 1.5? 1.4? It needs separate research. > The result would be tailored for whom would pay for the research. > > IMHO: It is not mandatory that 100GE would become massive in the metro. (I > know that 100GE is already massive in the DC CLOS) > > > > Additionally, who would pay for this traffic growth? It also limits traffic > at some point. > > I hope it would happen after we would get our 22h/4k/12bit/120hz. > > > > Now, you could argue that Metaverse would jump and multiply traffic by an > additional 2x or 3x. Then 400GE may be needed. > > Sorry, but it is speculation yet. It is not a trend like the current > (declining) traffic growth. > > > > Ed/ > > From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces+vasilenko.eduard=huawei....@nanog.org] On > Behalf Of Phil Bedard > Sent: Thursday, May 4, 2023 8:32 PM > To: Etienne-Victor Depasquale <ed...@ieee.org>; NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> > Subject: Re: Routed optical networks > > > > It’s not necessarily metro specific although the metro networks could lend > themselves to overall optimizations. > > > > The adoption of ZR/ZR+ IPoWDM currently somewhat corresponds with your > adoption of 400G since today they require a QDD port. There are 100G QDD > ports but that’s not all that popular yet. Of course there is work to do > something similar in QSFP28 if the power can be reduced to what is supported > by an existing QSFP28 port in most devices. In larger networks with higher > speed requirements and moving to 400G with QDD, using the DCO optics for > connecting routers is kind of a no-brainer vs. a traditional muxponder. > Whether that’s over a ROADM based optical network or not, especially at > metro/regional distances. > > > > There are very large deployments of IPoDWDM over passive DWDM or dark fiber > for access and aggregation networks where the aggregate required bandwidth > doesn’t exceed the capabilities of those optics. It’s been done at 10G for > many years. With the advent of pluggable EDFA amplifiers, you can even build > links up to 120km* (perfect dark fiber) carrying tens of terabits of traffic > without any additional active optical equipment. > > > > It’s my personal opinion we aren’t to the days yet of where we can simply > build an all packet network with no photonic switching that carries all > services, but eventually (random # of years) it gets there for many networks. > There are also always going to be high performance applications for > transponders where pluggable optics aren’t a good fit. > > > > Carrying high speed private line/wavelength type services as well is a > different topic than interconnecting IP devices. > > > > Thanks, > > Phil > > > > > > From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+bedard.phil=gmail....@nanog.org> on behalf of > Etienne-Victor Depasquale via NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> > Date: Monday, May 1, 2023 at 2:30 PM > To: NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> > Subject: Routed optical networks > > Hello folks, > > > > Simple question: does "routed optical networks" have a clear meaning in the > metro area context, or not? > > > > Put differently: does it call to mind a well-defined stack of technologies in > the control and data planes of metro-area networks? > > > > I'm asking because I'm having some thoughts about the clarity of this term, > in the process of carrying out a qualitative survey of the results of the > metro-area networks survey. > > > > Cheers, > > > > Etienne > > > > -- > > Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale > Assistant Lecturer > Department of Communications & Computer Engineering > Faculty of Information & Communication Technology > University of Malta > > Web. https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale > > > > > -- > > Podcast: > https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/ > > Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos > > > > > -- > > Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale > Assistant Lecturer > Department of Communications & Computer Engineering > Faculty of Information & Communication Technology > University of Malta > > Web. https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale -- Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/ Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
