Dear Mark:

1) "... Google's data also shows businesses making at about 4% if you look at the weekly trends that show IPv6 usage spiking on the weekend as business users traffic drops off. ...": Perhaps the better interpretation of this fluctuation is because the residential use (more IPv6) of the Internet peaks up during the weekend, and holidays. In fact, work from home during COVID-19 had a notable effect to this graph. Along this line, you may enjoy reviewing the following article and discussions:

https://circleid.com/posts/20190529_digging_into_ipv6_traffic_to_google_is_28_percent_deployment_limit/

Regards,


Abe (2022-12-03 18:40 EST)



On 2022-11-27 21:31, Mark Andrews wrote:
On 24 Nov 2022, at 19:53, Abraham Y. Chen<ayc...@avinta.com>  wrote:

Dear Joe:

0) Allow me to share my understanding of the two topics that you brought up.

1) "...https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html, it looks like we’ve gone 
from ~0% to ~40% in 12 years.... ":  Your numbers may be deceiving.

   A. The IPv6 was introduced in 1995-12, launched on 2012-06-06 and ratified 
on 2017-07-14. So, the IPv6 efforts have been quite a few years more than your 
impression. That is, the IPv6 has been around over quarter of a century.
Which doesn’t change that fact that the traffic to Google has gone from ~0% to 
40% in 12 years.  No one claimed that Google has been measuring IPv6 traffic 
since the very beginning nor does it really matter how long it has been since 
IPv6 was defined.  What we are seeing is strong continuing growth in IPv6 usage 
where the S curve is a long way from flattening off.
   B. If you read closely, the statement  "The graph shows the percentage of users that access 
Google over IPv6." above the graph actually means "equipment readiness". That is, 
how many Google users have IPv6 capable devices. This is similar as the APNIC statistics whose 
title makes this clearer. However, having the capability does not mean the owners are actually 
using it. Also, this is not general data, but within the Google environment. Since Google is one of 
the stronger promoters of the IPv6, this graph would be at best the cap of such data.
If you read it correctly Google is measuring actual traffic.  Thats actual data 
flowing to and from Google's servers be it Gmail, YouTube, search traffic or 
anything else.  It does mean that the owners of the devices are using IPv6.

   C. The more meaningful data would be the global IPv6 traffic statistics. 
Interestingly, they do not exist upon our extensive search. (If you know of 
any, I would appreciate to receive a lead to such.) The closest that we could 
find is % of IPv6 in AMS-IX traffic statistics (see URL below). It is currently 
at about 5-6% and has been tapering off to a growth of less than 0.1% per month 
recently, after a ramp-up period in the past. (Similar saturation behavior can 
also be found in the above Google graph.)

https://stats.ams-ix.net/sflow/ether_type.html
What makes that “more meaningful” data.  I just see different populations of 
users being measured.  Google's data also shows businesses making at about 4% 
if you look at the weekly trends that show IPv6 usage spiking on the weekend as 
business users traffic drops off.

   D.  One interesting parameter behind the last one is that as an 
Inter-eXchange operator, AMS-IX should see very similar percentage traffic mix 
between IPv6 and IPv4. The low numbers from AMS-IX does not support this 
viewpoint for matching with your observation. In addition, traffic through IX 
is the overflow among backbone routers. A couple years ago, there was a report 
that peering arrangements among backbone routers for IPv6 were much less 
matured then IPv4, which meant that AMS-IX should be getting more IPv6 traffic 
than the mix in the Internet core. Interpreted in reverse, % of IPv6 in overall 
Internet traffic should be less than what AMS-IX handles.

   E. This is a quite convoluted topic that we only scratched the surface. They 
should not occupy the attention of colleagues on this list. However, I am 
willing to provide more information to you off-line, if you care for further 
discussion.

2)  "...https://lore.kernel.org/lkml/20080108011057.ga21...@cisco.com/  ...":  
My basic training was in communication equipment hardware design. I knew little about 
software beyond what I needed for my primary assignment. Your example, however, reminds 
me of a programing course that I took utilizing APL (A Programming Language) for circuit 
analysis, optimization and synthesis. It was such a cryptic symbolic language that 
classmates (mostly majored in EE hardware) were murmuring to express their displeasure. 
One day we got a homework assignment to do something relatively simple. Everyone 
struggled to write the code to do the job. Although most of us did get working codes, 
they were pages long. The shortest one was one full page. Upon reviewed all homework, the 
professor smiled at us and told us to look for the solution section at the end of the 
text book. It turned out to be the answer for a problem in the next chapter to be 
covered. The code was only three lines long! Although it did not have the codes for 
debugging purposes, it covered all error messages expected. It was such a shocker that 
everyone quieted down to focus on the subject for the rest of the semester. During my 
first employment, we had the need to optimize circuit designs. Since I was the only staff 
who knew about it, I ended up being the coordinator between several hardware designers 
and the supporting programmer. From that teaching, I am always looking for the most 
concise solution to an issue, not being distracted or discouraged by the manifestation on 
the surface.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APL_(programming_language)

3) Fast forward half a century, I am hoping that my "one-line code" serves the purpose of 
"there exists" an example in proofing a mathematical theorem for  inspiring software 
colleagues to review the network codes in front of them for improvement, instead of presenting such 
as a valid hurdle to progress.


Regards,


Abe (2022-11-24 03:53 EST)





On 2022-11-21 19:30, Joe Maimon wrote:
David Conrad wrote:
Barry,

On Nov 21, 2022, at 3:01 PM,b...@theworld.com  wrote:
We've been trying to get people to adopt IPv6 widely for 30 years with very 
limited success
According tohttps://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html, it looks like 
we’ve gone from ~0% to ~40% in 12 years.https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6  has 
it around 30%. Given an Internet population of about 5B, this can 
(simplistically and wrongly) argued to mean 1.5-2B people are using IPv6. For a 
transition to a technology that the vast majority of people who pay the bills 
will neither notice nor care about, and for which the business case typically 
needs projection way past the normal quarterly focus of shareholders, that 
seems pretty successful to me.

But back to the latest proposal to rearrange deck chairs on the IPv4 Titanic, the 
fundamental and obvious flaw is the assertion of "commenting out one line 
code”. There isn’t “one line of code”. There are literally _billions_ of instances 
of “one line of code”, the vast majority of which need to be changed/deployed/tested 
with absolutely no business case to do so that isn’t better met with deploying 
IPv6+IPv4aaS. I believe this has been pointed out numerous times, but it falls on 
deaf ears, so the discussion gets a bit tedious.

Regards,
-drc

Had the titanic stayed afloat some hours more, many more would have survived 
and been rescued when assistance eventually arrived. So that makes this a 
debate over whether this is deck chair re-arrangement or something more 
meaningful.

As I and others have pointed out, it depends on how it is used. And perhaps the 
attempt should be made regardless of knowing in advance which it will be.

You assertion needs some back of the envelope numbers, which once provided, I 
suspect will render your estimate grossly incorrect.

You can hardly attempt to convince anybody that 240/4 as unicast would not be 
the more trivial change made in any of these products natural life cycle points.

Especially as we have examples of what that type of effort might look like. 
IGTFY and here

https://lore.kernel.org/lkml/20080108011057.ga21...@cisco.com/

The burdensome position is ridiculous even more so when stated with a straight 
face.

Joe



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