I think you are significantly overestimating the quality, quantity and will of the Russians to do such a thing as shoot down another countries satellites. In case it wasn’t clear from the preceding week there is a significant difference between the image of conventional weapon strength the Russian military has been portraying over the last 20 years and the reality of the situation. Swatting down hundreds of satellites just isn’t a thing, even the US military who have access to hundreds of SM3/SM6/THAAD vehicles would struggle to do such a thing. The Russian military would struggle to knock down a dozen I would suggest and the retaliation would be significant for such a blatant attack on a NATO countries assets.
From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+tony=wicks.co...@nanog.org> On Behalf Of Scott McGrath Sent: Wednesday, 2 March 2022 8:57 am To: Phineas Walton <p...@phineas.io> Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org> Subject: Re: Starlink terminals deployed in Ukraine Starlink however forgets that Russia does have anti satellite weapons and they probably will not hesitate to use them which will make low earth orbit a very dangerous place when Russia starts blowing up the Starlink birds. I applaud the humanitarian aspect of providing Starlink service, unfortunately there are geopolitical realities like access to space which is likely to be negatively impacted if and when Russia starts shooting down these birds. Fortunately if they start shooting down the birds the debris will burn up in a year or so unlike geosync orbit where it would stay forever. - WB6RDV
