> I've done some more testing. What is failing is installboot while
> trying to set an EFI variable. Managed to run installboot with the -v
> option during this step of the upgrade as shown in this picture to get
> additional information. I'm not using FDE and sd0 is the right disk to
> use.

I think I've found a workaround. At some point installboot looks for
an unused Boot000* variable. In my case all of those were already
used, and several duplicated. So I had to boot Arch Linux and use
efibootmgr to delete Boot0004 which in my case was duplicated and not
used, something about NIC boot. After that I tried sysupgrade and
everything worked fine. Hope it helps.

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