At the very least, I would withhold judgement about whether this is a strategic 
victory for Palestine and a strategic defeat for Israel until it becomes clear 
whether the ceasefire a) leads to a permanent cessation of the Israeli assault 
and the full withdrawal of its forces from Gaza, b) advances the prospects for 
a genuinely independent Palestinian state, c) results in the prosecution of 
Netanyahu, Gallant, and other Israeli war criminals, and d) includes as part of 
the prisoner exchange high-profile Palestinian leaders like Marwan Barghouti 
who are able to lead the struggle forward.

After all, have these not been the long-standing demands of the Palestinians 
and their supporters?

It's commonplace for both sides to claim victory for their side and defeat for 
the other in order to persuade their respective constituencies to endorse an 
agreement. We should not indulge in that practice, intended mainly to keep up 
morale among those who have sacrificed in the struggle and those like ourselves 
who have marched in solidarity with them abroad.  As in a tentative agreement 
ending a strike, better to make a critical-minded objective assessment of what 
it suggests about the actual balance of forces, the likely direction of the 
conflict, and the strategic adjustments which may be required going forward.


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