Most of you know that Ukraine's armed forces entered the Kursk Oblast of the 
Russian Federation about 5 days ago. They have made stunning gains crossing two 
entrenched lines of defense with almost no stopping. AT worst, this represents 
a huge intelligence failure on part of the Russian military and intelligence 
apparatus. Currently the actual area Ukrainian Forces (UF) occupy is only about 
140 sq. km. It is actually not a lot compared to what Russia occupies in 
Ukraine.

Ukraine only recently acknowledges its troops are in the Russian Federation (as 
of yesterday and in a rather subdued manner). Russia, of course, denied any 
incursion was made at all. ALL information on this comes from what are called 
"Russian Military Bloggers" that is, those Russian army members who actively 
participate on social media, mostly Telegram. This includes Russian drone 
footage of Russian POWs being sent back to Ukraine. So no one believes the 
Russian governments denial that there is a UF incursion. They finely owned up 
to this yesterday when they declared a "Federation wide state of emergency".

No one but the Ukrainians know the actual reason for this beyond hitting 
Russia's military and taking territory. There is a LOT of speculation. One 
thing is obvious, given the losses sustained by the mostly conscript Russian 
military in this region, it will require a lot of troops to dislodge the UF 
IF...a big "if"...the UF actually dig in. I've seen no evidence this is the 
case. Also, if one follows the direction of the UF's advance, they are all 
aimed at the 3 large nuclear plants running west to east along a highway east 
of the city of Kursk...no being evacuated by the Russian forces.

I've not paid attention to the military situation on the front lines for almost 
6 months as it was so boring with only a very slow, but steady advance, by 
Russian forces in the East. This is new development has me focused again.

David


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