Dear Colleagues, We are excited to share with you our new publication 'Assessing the reliability of species distribution models under changing environments: A case study on cetaceans in the North-East Atlantic', published in Global Ecology and Conservation:
Pigeault, R., Authier, M., Ramirez-Martinez, N. C., Virgili, A., Geelhoed, S. C., Haelters, J., Louzao, M., Saaveedra, C. & Gilles, A. (2024). Assessing the reliability of species distribution models under changing environments: a case study on cetaceans in the North-East Atlantic. Global Ecology and Conservation, e03299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e03299 Using the cetacean survey data collected in the North-East Atlantic from 2005 to 2020 and a set of covariates commonly used to predict cetacean distribution with species distribution models (SDMs), we investigated the periods, regions and environments where SDM predictions depended on modelling choices due to the small amount of environmentally similar calibration data. To do so, we used 2 well-established metrics (extrapolations and nearby data in the environmental space) on monthly prediction grids from 2005 to 2020 in the North-East Atlantic. The results showed that, following the coverage effort, predictions in environments associated with shallow waters and moderate temperatures were largely supported by the calibration dataset. The number of data supporting predictions decreased significantly in deep waters due to the logistic constraints associated with surveying offshore areas. Other variations in predictive reliability were also observed depending on primary productivity, seabed slope and cold/warm temperatures in the study area, as these variables vary greatly between regions and over time. This study provides additional information on the potential to build reliable species distribution models in the region, and sheds light on periods, areas and environments where current environmental gaps can be filled by future surveys to increase the ability of models to robustly predict cetacean distribution. Best regards, On behalf of all co-authors, Remi Pigeault Institute of Terrestrial and Aquatic Wildlife Research (ITAW) - TiHo Buesum (Germany)
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