> Kent Kostuk wrote: > > As I mentioned before. The file that I have attached runs into the > footer section of some pages. I didn't recall doing anything out of > the ordinary, but given I am still experimenting there is always the > chance I took a wrong turn somewhere. you had no standard text, only section, subsection, aso. so latex can't formatting this stuff. have a look at the attached file it's another solution. Herbert -- http://www.educat.hu-berlin.de/~voss/lyx/
#LyX 1.1 created this file. For more info see http://www.lyx.org/ \lyxformat 218 \textclass article \language english \inputencoding latin1 \fontscheme default \graphics default \paperfontsize default \spacing single \papersize Default \paperpackage a4 \use_geometry 1 \use_amsmath 0 \paperorientation portrait \leftmargin 0.5in \topmargin 1in \rightmargin 0.5in \bottommargin 1in \secnumdepth 3 \tocdepth 3 \paragraph_separation indent \defskip medskip \quotes_language english \quotes_times 2 \papercolumns 1 \papersides 1 \paperpagestyle default \layout Section Is This a Civil Engineering Problem? \layout Enumerate Infrastructure is largely public sector \layout Enumerate Historically public works fal within the domain of civil engineering. \layout Enumerate Could \begin_inset Quotes eld \end_inset allow \begin_inset Quotes erd \end_inset the management of process to others and as a discipline we act in an operations function. \layout Enumerate Better to have decision makers/strategists understand management issues and eng. issues. \layout Enumerate Easier to train engineer in management than manager in engineering. \layout Enumerate It has been our responsibility. If we do not begin to manage better our influence will be greatly reduced. \layout Section Asset Management \layout Enumerate Define Asset Management. \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate FHWA-AASHTO \begin_inset Quotes eld \end_inset Working definition \begin_inset Quotes erd \end_inset \newline \begin_inset Quotes eld \end_inset Asset management is a systematic process of maintaining, upgrading, and operating physical assets cost effectively. It combines engineering principles with sound business practices and economic theory, and it provides tools to facilitate a more organized, logical approach to decision-making. Thus, asset management provides a framework for handling both short- and long-range planning. \begin_inset Quotes erd \end_inset \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Why Now? \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate 3 Key Factors \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Changes in public expectations \layout Enumerate High tax burden -- public wants to see their money put to good use -- min. waste. \layout Enumerate Advances in technology \layout Enumerate Advances in computing technology has simplified (or at least made feasible) data collection, storage and retrieval \layout Enumerate Optimization and analytical engines capable solving large problems \layout Enumerate Raw HP available is significant \layout Enumerate Changes in public works environment \layout Enumerate High user demand, stretched budgets, mature assets, declining staff resources \end_deeper \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Project vs Network Level Management \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate 2 levels of management -- project and network \layout Enumerate A network (strategic level) is made up of individual projects \layout Enumerate Project (tactical level) is a definable, homogenous unit \layout Enumerate This research focuses on project level \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Project Level Management \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate 3 key categories of analytical model \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate State, time, transition \end_deeper \layout Enumerate State -- what condition is this asset? \layout Enumerate Time -- what is the condition at this point in time? \layout Enumerate Transition -- by how much did the condition state change? Over what period? What caused the change? \layout Enumerate The model above can be used to generate an optimal \begin_inset Quotes eld \end_inset policy \begin_inset Quotes erd \end_inset or maintenance plan. \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Applying the abstract model to \begin_inset Quotes eld \end_inset flesh and blood \begin_inset Quotes erd \end_inset asset is paramount \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Applying Abstraction \layout Enumerate Application of abstraction relatively straightforward \layout Enumerate The key to doing it well is careful consideration of available resources/data \layout Enumerate State: What condition information is available via records, future data collection, physical models, local/expert knowledge \layout Enumerate Transition: Translate this to treatments/control. What causes the asset to depreciate and what can be done to improve state? \layout Enumerate Need to consider both simultaneously \layout Enumerate In the past state was defined by an aggregate condition index. Attempt was made to relate the index to the physical distresses. Problem: Index value did not correspond to unique set of physical distresses \layout Enumerate A uniquely definable condition index is not the only goal to be accomplished. Distresses that are p art of index must be treatable/contollable based on the available treatment methods and equipment \layout Enumerate Suggests hierarchy of treatments -- distresses \layout Enumerate Need to define distress \layout Enumerate Distress -- definable/measurable mode of failure. Concisting of both severity (How wide is this crack?) and extent (How many cracks per unit length?) \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Data Collection \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Need data for asset's condition (for all distresses) today (or some point in time) and its performance under various treatments \layout Enumerate Sounds simple. Usually a key stumbling block \layout Enumerate Data for new systems often does not exist (FHWA refers to Pontis) \layout Enumerate 3 sources: Historic/survey, expert, 1st principles \layout Enumerate Historic/survey -- info not there, time intensive \layout Enumerate 1st principles -- would be great but do not necessarily exist (likely not) \layout Enumerate Expect opinion -- subjective data based on past experience on this asset or similar. Largest downside, can include personal bias. Upside is time effective if right tool chosen. \layout Enumerate Can always update subjective data once some history is accumulated. \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Decision Model \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Raw data acts as foundation to decision \layout Enumerate Needs structure to become information \layout Enumerate How will alternatives be compared and how will infeasible alternatives be discarded? \layout Enumerate Comparison -- objective function \layout Enumerate Feasibility -- constraints \layout Enumerate Objective function -- min. costs or max. user's utility? Both require constraint to prevent impractical extremes (all bad or everything perfect). \layout Enumerate Model output -- maintenance strategy and corresponding budget \layout Enumerate Model is optimal based on data provided if resulting strategy is not considered effective then mode's formulation/structure should be considered for reformulat ion. \end_deeper \layout Section Long Term Maintenance Contracts \layout Enumerate What is a LTMC? \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Owner of asset contracts out the maintenance of asset over some period \layout Enumerate Length of contract varies -- function of size of contract, lifespan of asset, utilization, availability of expertise in marketplace \layout Enumerate Used in both private and public sector \layout Enumerate Extent of what is covered under contract also variable -- as little as routine and as much as full responsibility of asset's performance overtime \layout Enumerate Even used in healthcare -- in U.S. H.M.O., U of S dental plan \layout Enumerate Examples of public sector impelentations \layout Enumerate In BC, Australia/NZ, UK, Alberta, Ontario \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Why LTMC in Public Sector? \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Key reason -- private sector involvement in maintaining public assets \layout Enumerate Additional benefit -- elimates uncertainty \layout Enumerate Arrangement (typical) \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Assets selected for contract by owner \layout Enumerate Ower establishes length of contract \layout Enumerate Owner establishes L.O.S. required during life of contract \layout Enumerate Owner establishes the min. condition asset must be in at end of contract \layout Enumerate Could also establish what would be considered out of the ordinary (out of scope) \layout Enumerate Contractor's bid on contract \layout Enumerate Under some scenarios user tolls are part of the agreement \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Basically what is happening is that the owner is accepting a fixed amount (the bid) for a potentially uncertain process (the maintenance of the asset) \layout Enumerate LTMC are characterized as a transfer of risk from the public to private sector \layout Enumerate Baasides such obvious savings as transering work form a unionized to non-unioniz ed environment, savings are expected from the private sector's ability to quickly respond to stochastic events. \layout Enumerate >From the contractor's perspective they want to bid low enough to get work but high enough so as to minimize the likelihood of losing money on job. \layout Enumerate Extremely valid concern. Size of projects are quite large just because of the intrinsic value of the assets \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Quantifying Risk \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Risk is defined as the possibility of an undesirable event \layout Enumerate Obviously the u ndesirable case in this situation is for the maintenance costs to exceed the contract's value \layout Enumerate Before contractor can begin looking at controlling/managing risk he must quantify it first \layout Enumerate Ideal tool is an asset management system \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Includes inventory, costs, past performance, and predictive models \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Models must be probabilistic -- the process is uncertain \layout Enumerate Probabilistic model will generate an expected cost and the distribution associated wtih this cost \layout Enumerate The contractor's risk can be determined from the portion of the distribution where the costs exceed the contract's value. \end_deeper \layout Enumerate Managing Risk \begin_deeper \layout Enumerate Once risk is quantified, managing it is possible \layout Enumerate >From contractor's perspective -- what can be done to reduce exposure to risk or size of risk? \layout Enumerate Exposure to risk -- variance. Reduce distribution's spread and the \begin_inset Quotes eld \end_inset negative area \begin_inset Quotes erd \end_inset \layout Enumerate Size of risk -- reduce size of downside. \layout Enumerate How to contrl? \layout Enumerate What influences system transition? \layout Enumerate Environment -- no change \layout Enumerate Utilization -- can not change \layout Enumerate Asset's performance -- contractor can influence \layout Enumerate Performance -- how performs and how well we can reduce variability associated with performance \layout Enumerate Contractor may live with uncertainty if lower costs \layout Enumerate Issue of trade-offs \layout Enumerate contractor can explicitly quantify value associated witih better performance, more consistent perforamnce, better information \end_deeper \layout Section Objective \layout Enumerate Develop methodology to quantify the uncertainty associated with long term maintenance contracts. \layout Section Scope \layout Enumerate Scope restricted to the development of simple project level asset management model \layout Enumerate Model will generate an optimal managemetn strategy basd on level of service constraints and asset performance prediction curves \layout Enumerate The ability to control/impact risk will be illustrated by adjusting the asset performance curves \layout Enumerate Example data will be based on pavement performance and costing \layout Section Methodology \layout Enumerate Develop how an asset depreciation curve can be used to develop a distress transition probability matrix (routine maintenance) \layout Enumerate show how (R.M.) distress TPM can be used to develop TPMs for other forms of maintenance \layout Enumerate Aggregate distress level TPM to form an asset level TPM \layout Enumerate Develop LP formulation of AM problem \layout Enumerate Solve LP for sample problem \layout Enumerate Adjust model inputs -- curves and resolve LP \the_end
