LTE - Fastest Developing Mobile Technology Ever?
by Dr. Mehmet Unsoy
There is always a view that major technologies would take long time to get
developed and deployed. We are all very familiar with the Hype curves. For
example, it has taken 3G a long time to get fully deployed around the world,
and it still is not fully available in some major parts of the globe. Thus,
when we look at LTE deployment, it is fair to reflect and to say it may take
years, maybe a decade before it is generally available around the world.
However, I beg to differ. There are three major reasons for my optimism about
the fast pace of LTE / 4G deployments around the world. Based on these, I
believe that LTE could be one of the fastest developing mobile technologies
ever!
Insatiable Demand
The first reason is the user demand. I believe there is an incredible demand
for accessing information wherever you want and whenever you want it. The
deployment of Smartphones, Tablets, and all sort of mobile multimedia apps,
services, and content made it possible for mobile users to demand whatever they
want, on the go
This tsunami-like growth in demand for mobile content was not there 10 -12
years ago. I know for a fact that mobile operators had difficulty justifying 3G
roll-outs vs 2.5G. Today, the demand is so huge that justifying new, more
efficient technologies and more spectrum is much easier.
We already have over 800 million Smartphones, but there is still significant
upside on the numbers of these devices. I think it is reasonable to expect
about 2 billion Smartphones, one third of 6 billion total mobile handsets, by
2013.
Social networking is one of the major drivers of mobile traffic demand. It
looks like social network users have already exceeded all other Internet users.
Finally, mobile Internet is expected to eclipse desktop Internet, for both
consumer and enterprise markets. We see a significant increase in the
deployment of mobile solutions for the enterprise around the world.
Thus the demand for mobile communication, mobile Internet, mobile social
networking, mobile enterprise, mobile anything is huge and growing at paces we
have never seen before.
LTE technology is superior
The second reason for my optimism is that LTE is the right technology for the
current opportunities and challenges industry is facing today. There are at
least two major reasons for that:
* LTE is a unifying technology for almost all mobile operators around the
world. All GSM/UMTS operators as well as most CDMA operators have agreed to
evolve to LTE. This “harmonization” of mobile technologies is a major
acceleration factor for the deployment of the LTE networks. It is expected to
offer huge cost efficiencies for the mobile industry as a whole.
* Also, LTE technology is significantly more efficient for the air
interface part compared to any previous cellular technologies. Mobile operators
who are under the huge demand pressure mentioned above, can easily justify the
investment in LTE in terms of significant bandwidth efficiency savings.
So, LTE is the right technology at the right time.
Impressive adoption & deployment so far
My third reason for optimism is the pace of LTE development and deployment so
far. Based on various industry reports, we already have:
* 248 mobile operators in 87 countries currently investing significant
money into LTE
* 185 operators in 66 countries, already firmly committed to deploy
commercial LTE networks
* Plus 63 additional operators running tech-trials / pilots in other 21
countries
* Already there are 35 commercially available LTE networks in 20+ countries
* 48 manufacturers already announced 197 different LTE end-devices,
covering a wide range of spectrum, 700 MHz to 2.6 GHz.
Given all these activities and deployments, I tend to agree with industry
reports that we may reach around 300 Million LTE subscribers by 2015. It may
even be a higher number.
Here in the U.S. one major operator already has 186 million population coverage
for LTE as of last month. Every week, U.S. operators are announcing new LTE
handsets.
Interesting observation is that the LTE investment decisions, trials and
deployments are not limited to developed, mature markets. In fact, there are
more emerging markets interested in LTE, since it is seen as very critical for
their broadband service deployment and economic development. LTE is now
considered a must for national economies.
The bottom line is there are already significant investments and deployment of
LTE services around the world.
Conclusions
It is clear that the mobile communication market is expanding exponentially.
This presents various opportunities and challenges for the industry. Mobile
operators are making huge sums of investments in new technologies, as well as
expanding their capacities and services. Other eco-system players are making
significant investments as well. Mobile payments, social networking,
machine-to-machine, mobile healthcare are some of the sub-sectors receiving
major attention.
These investments are helping the industry to grow in multiple tracks. They are
stimulating more innovative end devices, more applications and services, and
thus changing our daily lives for the better.
It is exciting times to be in the mobile industry!
Based in Dallas,Texas, Dr. Mehmet Unsoy is Managing Partner at mSolve Partners.
He can be reached at [email protected].
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Saygılar
Mustafa Akgul <[email protected]>
CE'70 Math/OR'74
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