57! For once, a number that matters. Thank you, Louis.
Sent from my iPhone On Dec 1, 2023, at 8:54 PM, Louis Zipes <louiszi...@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi Greg, I'm glad you highlighted the subjective nature of your figures. Therefore, as a Supporter of Proposal C in that spirit I'm going to try and summarize your scenario under E using another calculation:
Option E: ~160 net new units built at Lincoln Station, increasing Lincoln's overall housing stock by ~8% - 100 units built at the Village Center in 3 story buildings through Town Meeting (see below*)
- 0 units built along Codman road --> True!
- 39 net new units built along Lincoln Rd / Lewis St --> Who knows, after all some of the property owners are fervent Option E supporters but I will still add it in.
- 18 net new units built at Lincoln Woods --> Maybe, maybe not because we have no idea what a private Developer will do but still I will add it in.
*Village Center: So since we have moved from Proposal C, which was overwhelmingly supported at SOTT and then we moved to D1-D3 and now also somehow Proposal E was included in the mix I'm not counting on anything for the Village Center if Proposal E somehow wins tomorrow.
So I'm going to count the Village Center as zero. If you can't imagine a more limited amount of housing under C then I'm not going to give the same courtesy for E and some kind of redevelopment for .
So we are at 57 total net new units in the best case scenario with Proposal E. Which even if the commonwealth somehow calls us compliant would mean that we over 7 years, if you factor from the completion of Oriole Landing (2022) to your 5 year into the future horizon (considering that zoning probably won't be fully completed to 2024 or maybe even later because of course people are saying 'why are we rushing!') we will have produced a grand total of of 5.7 affordable units (using the 10% floor) meaning less than one affordable unit per year by 2029.
Plus over that 7 year time frame (2022 - 2029) we would actually produce total housing yearly output (8.14 units per year) lower than our already paltry 14.28 units per year of housing we have built per year over the last 57 years. I'm basing this on the 800 units built between 1966 to 2022 that we were told to be proud of. Let's not even get into how many of those units are specialized let alone the fact that a bunch of us are sitting on low interest rate loans so we are probably not going anywhere from our current houses in the next 20 plus years so a bunch of housing is essentially off the market for the next few decades.
I think that is it for me for the night. I'm going to play a little Spelling Bee, rest up and get ready for tomorrow. I might come up with a Bingo Card ala my first effort back in 2019 to fill out when I hear people, on both sides, bring up certain topics and arguments.
Best, Louis
Hi all,
A handful of friends who have been following the HCA debate less closely have asked for my expectations of what development will realistically look like under different scenarios (i.e. how to read the tables). I thought it might be helpful to share here in case others have similar questions. While there is subjectivity introduced in any projection, I've tried to keep to the facts where possible and use conservative assumptions. I welcome any questions or challenges to assumptions.
Here are my assumptions (based on a 5-year horizon): - Assume the Village Center is developed to zoning limits*
- Where zoning overlays on existing condos, assume no new development
- Where zoning overlays on existing apartments (Lincoln Woods), assume units built = 50% of the difference between existing units and capacity
- Where zoning overlays on existing single family or commercial, assume 50% of property owners sell and condos are built to zoning limits*
- If "E" wins tomorrow, assume the Mall will be developed to 100 units separately at town meeting (highly likely since all C/D supporters and many E supporters would be supportive)
- *Note that zoning limits are different from modeled units and are a more realistic measure of what can be built
Summary of net new units built in medium term
Option C: ~400 net new units built at Lincoln Station, increasing Lincoln's overall housing stock by ~20%
- 178 units built at the Village Center in 3 or 4 story buildings
- 114 net new units built along Codman road
- 87 net new units built along Lincoln Rd / Lewis St
- 18 net new units built at Lincoln Woods
Option E: ~160 net new units built at Lincoln Station, increasing Lincoln's overall housing stock by ~8% - 100 units built at the Village Center in 3 story buildings through Town Meeting
- 0 units built along Codman road
- 39 net new units built along Lincoln Rd / Lewis St
- 18 net new units built at Lincoln Woods
Disclosure I will be voting for Option E tomorrow, but have tried to be impartial in the above assessment (e.g., I personally think the 50% I used is a too-conservative assumption for what percent of Lewis St/Lincoln Rd/Codman Rd owners will sell within 5 years, but others might disagree so have left as is).
Thank you,
Greg Haines 41 Lincoln Rd
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