Understood and fair point, let's see how it shakes out with the final
option and the bylaws together.

Rob

On Wed, Nov 29, 2023 at 9:26 PM Margaret Olson <[email protected]>
wrote:

> You vote on the specific zoning language at the March town meeting. The
> vote on Dec 2nd is only for which option the zoning regulations are to
> address.
>
> This process has multiple steps:
> 1. develop possible approaches
> 2. choose an approach
> 3. develop zoning regulations for the chosen approach
> 4. Vote  on the zoning
> 5. Assuming the zoning passes at town meeting, send the zoning to the
> state for approval
>
> We are at step 2: choose an approach. There are no zoning changes on the
> warrant on Saturday, only a “sense of the town” vote.
>
> There will be public meetings and a public hearing and multiple
> opportunities for the public to provide input prior to the zoning vote in
> March
>
> Note that the preliminary verification check that we are soliciting now is
> just that: a preliminary check. It isn’t a full review; that comes after we
> have adopted HCA zoning.
>
> On Wed, Nov 29, 2023 at 9:08 PM Robert Ahlert <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> So how can we be expected to vote on Saturday when key information is
>> contained in ONLY the Zoning Bylaw?
>>
>> For example, the section on the Village Center states that only 30-40% of
>> the ground floor of buildings will have to remain commercial.  Is that
>> still the latest language? Perhaps you can provide the revised language to
>> the residents because I know it only applies to interior portions of the
>> parcel and not frontage on Lincoln Rd.  This is a critical point.  No one
>> knows what the "mandatory" in mandatory mixed use actually means.  It's
>> only "mandatory" that 30-40% is commercial, the rest can be parking or
>> units at ground level.
>>
>> If Donelan's decides not to renew, wouldn't a "by right'' property owner
>> (e.g. CIVICO) likely demolish that building and only leave 30-40% of the
>> ground floor as commercial?  Could the developer push out the grocery store
>> b/c housing is more profitable?  I worry we would end up with more of a
>> mini-mart than a real grocery store
>>
>> *Vote Option E, this process needs more time.*
>>
>> Rob
>> 185 Lincoln Rd, Lincoln, MA 01773
>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/185+Lincoln+Rd,+Lincoln,+MA+01773?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 29, 2023 at 8:43 PM Margaret Olson <[email protected]>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On the draft the planning board was discussing last week at our working
>>> meeting:
>>>
>>> As is common with working drafts, the text of the HCA zoning by-law
>>> discussed by the planning board at our working meeting included all the
>>> options the board might consider. The draft has text from planning board
>>> members, town staff, and town counsel. It is both incomplete and at the
>>> same time contains multiple approaches to the same problem, only one of
>>> which will be chosen. The board has not voted on it. It is not possible at
>>> this point to make any statements about what the zoning does and does not
>>> include or permit.
>>>
>>> I’ll also point out that the errors in the HCA submission to the state
>>> were inconsequential. They were corrected for completeness but the updates
>>> did not change anything material.
>>>
>>> Margaret
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Nov 29, 2023 at 6:56 PM David Cuetos <[email protected]>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> The State allows towns rezoning land that can be used towards HCA
>>>> compliance to require developers to set aside 10% affordable units. In
>>>> order to request a higher than 10% affordable quota, towns have to submit a
>>>> feasibility study to the State. As per the guidelines
>>>> <https://www.mass.gov/info-details/section-3a-guidelines>, the
>>>> analysis must demonstrate that a reasonable variety of multi-family housing
>>>> types can be feasibly developed at the proposed affordability levels,
>>>> taking into account the densities allowed as of right in the district, the
>>>> dimensional requirements applicable within the district, and the minimum
>>>> number of parking spaces required. Lincoln hired a third-party to
>>>> conduct such a study
>>>> <https://www.lincolntown.org/DocumentCenter/View/85137/Final-Draft-Lincoln-Econ-Feasility-October-6-2023>,
>>>> requesting 15% affordable units, but the State denied our request.
>>>>
>>>> Could the denial have been a surprise to the authors of the study?
>>>>
>>>> The answer is a resounding no. The feasibility analysis included a
>>>> series of scenarios with deeply negative rates of return (as low as -37%).
>>>> Anyone who had taken a look at the report ahead of its submission would
>>>> have known that the State would not grant Lincoln the requested 15%.
>>>>
>>>> Was denial the only possible outcome?
>>>>
>>>> The answer I believe is also a resounding no. The analysis conception
>>>> was deeply flawed. A more reasonable set of scenarios would have probably
>>>> yielded at least 15% affordable units, perhaps even 20%.
>>>>
>>>> Why did Lincoln submit a report that would certainly be denied?
>>>>
>>>> We enter into the realm of speculation here, but there are only two
>>>> reasonable explanations: lack of oversight, or satisfaction with the
>>>> results.
>>>>
>>>> Supporting the lack of oversight explanation, there are several
>>>> instances in which the HCAWG and the Director of Planning have failed to
>>>> properly oversee the work of consultants. Gross mistakes were made in the
>>>> model submission to the State prepared by Utile, as well as in the maps
>>>> presented to the public in which some parcels were not properly represented
>>>> in the maps used for public discussion. We also know that the economic
>>>> analysis
>>>> <https://www.lincolntown.org/DocumentCenter/View/79178/LDS-Memorandum-to-the-Town-of-Lincoln-re-Oriole-Landing--3162018-1?bidId=>
>>>> referenced in the HCAWG’s site, which was prepared by a consultant for
>>>> Civico at the time it was requesting approval for Oriole Landing, includes
>>>> unsourced educational costs that severely understate their true value. If
>>>> proper numbers had been used, the study would have indicated that the
>>>> development yielded negative fiscal results for the Town.
>>>>
>>>> Supporting the explanation that the denial was a satisfactory result
>>>> for the overseeing parties involved is the fact that throughout this
>>>> process it has been clear that the RLF is trying to maximize the price of
>>>> the sale for the Mall, and several members of the HCAWG have been publicly
>>>> explicit in their support for meeting Civico’s wishes. Loosening
>>>> affordability requirements would obviously increase the profits for Civico
>>>> and therefore the price of the sale. Let us remember that certain Planning
>>>> Board members presented a by-law draft last week that allowed the developer
>>>> to pay fees in lieu of building affordable units.
>>>>
>>>> What are the flawed assumptions exactly?
>>>>
>>>> The study runs some internal rates of return (IRR) for a variety of
>>>> multi-family housing types. The scenarios are divided into for sale
>>>> developments, and rental developments. The scenarios are also divided by
>>>> the type of development; there are townhome scenarios and garden style
>>>> scenarios. Finally scenarios vary by size: 24 units, 45 units, and 120
>>>> units.
>>>>
>>>> All of the townhome scenarios deliver rates of return that are
>>>> commensurate with developers’ expectations. The four garden style
>>>> developments are however deeply problematic. Their IRRs are -37% and -32%
>>>> for the for sale developments and 2% and -1% for the rentals. Garden style
>>>> and townhome developments are modeled as costing a similar amount, but
>>>> townhomes have a unit market price that is approximately 50% higher!
>>>> Simply, why are the consultants modeling garden style developments when
>>>> townhomes are so superior economically? No rational developer would ever
>>>> develop a garden-style development assuming this set of assumptions is
>>>> remotely accurate. It is important to note that the math for garden style
>>>> developments would also not work at 0% affordability.
>>>>
>>>> Why are the for sale garden style condos so unattractive?
>>>>
>>>> The assumptions used by the consultant are highly flawed. First, the
>>>> set of comps seems quite biased. Why are we taking Cold Brooks in Sudbury
>>>> as basically the only comp to determine price per unit? If we are taking a
>>>> comp from a westerly neighbor (Sudbury), why not also take an easterly
>>>> neighbor (Lexington)? Since prices per square foot for the comps in
>>>> Lexington
>>>> <https://www.lexingtonma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8838/Eco-Feasibility-Study-033023?bidId=>,
>>>> per the consultants admission, are 40% higher than those for Sudbury the
>>>> result, had we taken an average of the two, which would have been more
>>>> appropriate, would have changed dramatically.
>>>>
>>>> More importantly, Cold Brooks is a new development. It is completely
>>>> absurd to expect Pulte Homes, the developer of Cold Brooks and a publicly
>>>> traded company, to start a development expecting negative 30% returns.
>>>> Clearly the cost per unit used by our consultant is dramatically wrong.
>>>>
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>>>
>>
>> --
>> *Robert Ahlert* | *781.738.1069* | [email protected]
>>
>

-- 
*Robert Ahlert* | *781.738.1069* | [email protected]
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