Hi
Football is not linear or predictable. It is a bit like the weather. The
gulf stream or whatever. Illness and health is pretty good comparison too.
There is a sort of overall predictability but then things can change in an
unpredictable way.
Ever since the the Bowyer Woodgate evening of shame & O'Leary's idiot book
we have been on a course of implosion.
A lot of factors inter playing in different ways with an inexorable
inevitability, each interacting in an unpredictable way   in a series of
vicious cycles.Ripples became waves. Waves became a tsunami.
We imploded. Our initial position 'Living the dream' was not stable. Then
the change came it was simply an implosion. It fed on the relationship and
changes between all the interweaving factors.
But lets face it. The vast majority of those factors have played themselves
out.
The signing of Wise was a very shrewd move. It may have been the right move
for the wrong reason.
Now the factors that will interact and bring about a new dynamic are
positive ones. Monetary stability, a strong leadership, a team that is
playing below itself and thus can improve, a great youth policy [ God bless
Wilkinson --- how much we are indebted to that man],  fantastic support and
the largest city in Europe with one team.
At present the momentum was down. But the factor, as I said are played out.
The previous unstable situation has not only been 'corrected', it has been
'over-corrected'.
If anything we are in a new unstable situation ,which hope fully will be
'corrected' by the newer positive factors.  The predominantly positive
factors can now act and interact if handled properly.
If we get the 'Manager Effect' the momentum will change. There are good
reasons to feel that we will start to surge forward. I do no think that we
can believe that the change will be linear or constant.But if Wise has the
strength and Bates the wisdom and they weather the first inevitable blips we
can start to soar, even this season.
Sure this explanation is built on a desire for it to be so.
But as I said Football is like very complex system driven by a host of
interweaving factors. We understand the factors but not the extent and
intricacy of the relationships. The factors have nearly if not all changed
for the better.
The leadership needed to take advantage of the changes is in place.
I am no longer pessimistic,in fact I am guardedly optimistic. I hope that we
can become very optimistic after say 10 games.I think to judge anything on
one game, the next one is being simplistic and unfair.
Hope I did not bore you all to death!
Michael


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Dr Michael Benjamin,
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Psychiatrist
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oh alright then :-)

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