>>I think all the questions about KB will be sorted in
September.<<
I don't.
>>With League games against Wolves, Sunderland, Coventry,
Birmingham, West Brom we face a really tough schedule - maximum points from
these games and even the biggest KB doubter (Rich ?) will have to concede
that he does know what he is doing ? A poor return points wise and KBs
backers (such as myslef - just about) will say that he has run his course
and we should be looking to bring someone else in
?<<
So what if we get an average return? Win some, lose some, draw some? -
say 7 points out of 15? Where would that leave us in the table? About half-way
probably. It's the most likely scenario, isn't it.
And it would still be early October.
We'd be in a far better position than, say, Palace 3 years ago, who were
in the relegation zone at Xmas and ended up promoted. Look at our run-in - a
lot of very "soft" looking games in April/May...
OK, if we're bottom four at Xmas, then Blackwell will be gone. But
so long as we're in with a shout of the playoffs, sacking him would be a
mistake.
What the club needs is STABILITY.
This is a million times more important that "entertaining
football".
We need to grind our way out of the Championship - and do it in such a
way that allows us to stay in the Premiership.
Ask yourself what would have happened if we had beaten Watford at
Cardiff.
We'd have received around £20m extra revenue from the premiership/TV
money etc. And attendances would have gone up - so perhaps anouther £5-10m of
gate money.
But we're still paying out £9m in wages to ex-players. And we'd have
had to pay a sum of several million to the bondholders. So about half of the
prem money would have gone straight down the drain.
We wouldn't have been able to attract good enough players, and we'd be
heading straignt back down again. I suspect in that scenario, Ken would have
used the remaining money to buy ER and Thorp Arch back from Petchey or whoever
owns it....
A season of drubbings by Portsmouth and Wigan does not equate to
STABILITY.
Bates has a strategy for getting us back. I'm not convinced going up last
season made sense - in fact Blackwell has overachieved over the plan in the
past two seasons. Season 1's objective was survival - in fact we flirted with
the playoffs. Season 2 was to become established as a solid championship side
- in fact we missed promotion by one game.
This season's objective is, I believe, playoffs as a minimum, promotion
would be a bonus. In the meanime, we've managed to re-establish a proper wage
structure at the club - £5k/wk maximum - and once Kelly has gone at the end of
the season nobody will be on more than that. So the wage bill for the first
team squad would be around £5m. Very manageable on our turnover. This also
enables you to incentivise incoming players by bonuses - for promotion; for
staying up, etc.
At the start iof the 07-08 season, the Ridsdale rot will have been
finally purged - whichever league we're in, we'll be a strong player (and
don't chip in with League 1!) And with all the Ridsdale legacy gone, Ken'll be
in a better position to attract a "Matthew Harding".
Personally I don't expect the good days back until the bad old days have
been erased from the books.
In the meantime, I believe Blackwell has earned his chance. And for the
record, I don't disagree with a word of the Rich Walker assessment of our
on-pitch efforts. I can just see the bigger picture....
Mark
