> Begin forwarded message:
> 
> From: Asko Parpola <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: [INDOLOGY] Question
> Date: 6. November 2022 at 18.16.53 EET
> To: Madhav Deshpande <[email protected]>
> 
> 
> Nowadays it appears that monsoonal rivers gradually dried in the Indus Valley 
> around 1900 BCE and that this was a major cause for the decline of the Indus 
> civilization:
> 
> Giosan, Liviu, Peter D. Clift, Mark G. Macklin, Dorian Q. Fuller, Stefan 
> Constantinescu, Julie A. Durcan, Thomas Stevens, Geoff A. T. Duller, Ali R. 
> Tabrez, Kavita Gangal, Ronojoy Adhikari, Anwar Alizai, Florin Filip, Sam 
> VanLaningham, and James P. M. Syvitski, 2012. Fluvial landscapes of the 
> Harappan civilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the 
> United States of America 109 (22), 29 May 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1112743109. 
> Abstract: The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban 
> civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region 
> of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 
> 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites 
> were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards 
> the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence 
> indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably 
> stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region 
> after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large 
> Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation 
> slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. 
> This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that 
> probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged 
> urbanization around 4,500 BP. However, further decline in monsoon 
> precipitation led to conditions adverse to both inundation- and rain-based 
> farming. Contrary to earlier assumptions that a large glacier-fed Himalayan 
> river, identified by some with the mythical Sarasvati, watered the Harappan 
> heartland on the interfluve between the Indus and Ganges basins, we show that 
> only monsoonal-fed rivers were active there during the Holocene. As the 
> monsoon weakened, monsoonal rivers gradually dried or became seasonal, 
> affecting habitability along their courses. Hydroclimatic stress increased 
> the vulnerability of agricultural production supporting Harappan urbanism, 
> leading to settlement downsizing, diversification of crops, and a drastic 
> increase in settlements in the moister monsoon regions of the upper Punjab, 
> Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.
> http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/05/24/1112743109.abstract 
> <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/05/24/1112743109.abstract> 
> 
> Giosan, Liviu, William D. Orsi, Marco Coolen, Cornelia Wuchter, Ann G. 
> Dunlea, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Samuel E. Munoz, Peter D. Clift, Jeffrey P. 
> Donnelly, Valier Galy, Dorian Q. Fuller, 2018. Neoglacial climate anomalies 
> and the Harappan metamorphosis. Climate of the Past: Discussions. 
> https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-37 <https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-37> 
> Abstract: We show that strong winter monsoons between ca. 4,500 and 3,000 
> years ago occurred during an interval of weak interhemispheric temperature 
> contrast, which we identify as the Early Neoglacial Anomaly (ENA), and were 
> accompanied by changes in wind and precipitation patterns across the eastern 
> Northern Hemisphere and Tropics. This coordinated climate reorganization may 
> have helped trigger the metamorphosis of the urban Harappan civilization into 
> a rural society through a push-pull migration from summer flood-deficient 
> river valleys to the Himalayan piedmont plains with augmented winter rains. 
> Finally, we speculate that time transgressive landcover changes due to 
> aridification of the Tropics may have led to a generalized instability of the 
> global climate during ENA at the transition from the warmer Holocene Optimum 
> to the cooler Neoglacial.
> 
> The 30 feet of flood silt at Mohenjo-daro as “flood evidence” was discussed 
> in the 1960s & 1970s:
> 
> Raikes, Robert L., & Robert H. Dyson, Jr., 1961. The prehistoric climate of 
> Baluchistan and the Indus Valley. American Anthropologist 63: 265-281. 
> Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient cities of the Indus, 1979, pp. 
> 223-233.
> 
> Raikes, Robert L., 1964. The end of the ancient cities of the Indus. American 
> Anthropologist 66.2: 284-299. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient 
> cities of the Indus, 1979, pp. 297-306.
> 
> Raikes, Robert L., 1965. The Mohenjo-daro floods. Antiquity 39: 196-203. 
> 
> Dales, George F., 1966. The decline of the Harappans. Scientific American 
> 241(5): 92-100. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient cities of the 
> Indus, 1979, pp.307-312.
> 
> Raikes, Robert L., 1967. The Mohenjo-daro floods — further notes. Antiquity 
> 41: 64-66.
> 
> Lambrick, H. T., 1967. The Indus Flood Plain and the “Indus” Civilization. 
> Geographical Journal 133 (4): 483-495. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), 
> Ancient cities of the Indus, 1979, pp. 313-322. 
> 
> Dales, George F., & R. L. Raikes, 1968. The Mohenjo-daro floods: A rejoinder. 
> American Anthropologist 70 (5): 957-961.
> 
> Raikes, Robert L., & George F. Dales, 1977. The Mohenjo-Daro floods 
> reconsidered. Journal of the Palaeontological Society of India 20: 251-260. 
> 
> Raikes, Robert L., 1979. The Mohenjo-daro bfloods: the cdebate continues. Pp. 
> 561-566 in: M. Taddei (ed.), South Asian Archaeology 1977. Neples. 
> 
> Best wishes, Asko Parpola
> 
> 
>> On 6. Nov 2022, at 15.53, Madhav Deshpande via INDOLOGY 
>> <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>> 
>> This question occurred to me recently. Does the massive flooding that 
>> Pakistan recently experienced give us some possibilities about the demise of 
>> the Indus Civilization? Are there any indications of such massive floods in 
>> Indus archaeology? I would appreciate any suggestions for reading on this 
>> topic. Best regards,
>> 
>> Madhav M. Deshpande
>> Professor Emeritus, Sanskrit and Linguistics
>> University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
>> Senior Fellow, Oxford Center for Hindu Studies
>> Adjunct Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore, India
>> 
>> [Residence: Campbell, California, USA]
>> 
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