IMO, one key aspect of incubation is to determine the health of the community or, at least, to provide some clear indication that the community, post-incubation, will grow and thrive. We cannot guarantee that at all; it would be foolish to believe we could.
A vote of +1 by 3 has always been a critical indication of correctness and completeness. Personally, if there is a community of 3 or 4, and they all vote +1, then that implies more involvement that a community of 2 dozen with "only" 3 votes.
Healthy does not always equate to growth in numbers, but rather in the growth of code. The danger of "small" communities is that the loss of a single developer can be more detrimental to the codebase and increases the risk of zombie projects. So obviously a project of a single contributor has the most risk...
So the questions are really: is the code progressing? Is there active development? Is there a user and developer community evolving? Is it worthwhile? And are there the votes?
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