I have created and run a simple agent-based model for democratic backslidinghttps://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBackslidingABM.ipynbIt is in fact in agreement with the theory mentioned earlier (the replicator equation for the coordination game described here)https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBacksliding.ipynbIt is just a simple model, but I believe it can help to explain why people in authoritarian states like Russia or Belarus do not overthrow their authoritarian government. If they protest, they are imprisoned and vanish. If the momentum is big enough, the situation can be different, though. The same dynamics can be found in the opposite direction: criminals and con men usually do not try to change the existing political order. If they do, they are imprisoned and disappear behind bars. If the crisis is big enough, then sometimes they really succeed in turning a democracy into an authoritarian regime.What do you think, does it make sense for you? -J.
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