On 9/29/21 7:26 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ wrote: > Do you know what you know? > A Confidence Calibration Exercise > http://confidence.success-equation.com/
I share Glen's interest in retaking such a test under different personal contexts. I found some of the questions seemingly a little disingenous and was surprised by the modest number that were easy to answer with high confidence. A randomly selected set from a larger group might give me a slightly different mix of these. Unsurprisingly (to me if not everyone), my Percent Correct was lower than Glen's while my Confidence was higher. The only thing I feel a little proud of was that most of my high confidence answers were in fact correct. I think I might have gotten better scores if I'd followed an intuition that the questions were worded to yield an equal distribution of true/false questions... I definitely allowed my own optimistic nature to bias toward answering "yes" rather than "no" when I had low confidence. A second pass through the questions with that in mind would probably have had me flipping some of my low-confidence "true"s to low confidence "false"s. Maybe this is an incorrect assumption about the design of the test. I may take it again to see if that improves my hit rate... I think my performance *would* be skewed by having seen the evaluation... knowing that a few of my high confidence answers were *wrong* will surely yield a few more "hedged bets" there... if I study the results with an eye to improving my scores, I can probably recognize a few other systematic areas for improvement. > > "After answering each of the true/false questions below, indicate how > confident you are in your answer using the corresponding slider. A value of > 50% means you have no idea what the right answer is (the same probability as > a random guess between the two choices); a value of 100% means you are > completely confident in your answer." > > It seems to present the same questions each time, which is a shame. I'd love > to try it fully alert. But my attempt at 4am, with an irritating headache, > turned out this way: > > Mean confidence: 61.60% > Actual percent correct: 78.00% > You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible. > Mean confidence on correct answers: 63.59% > Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 54.55% > You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for > correct answers. > > Quiz score > 39 correct out of 50 questions answered (78.00%) > 27 correct out of 38 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence > (71.05%) > 5 correct out of 5 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence > (100.00%) > 7 correct out of 7 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence > (100.00%) > > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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